商贸零售行业快评报告：政府工作报告首提“育儿补贴”，呼和浩特率先发布力度较大的补贴细则

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market," indicating an expected relative increase of over 10% in the industry index compared to the broader market within the next six months [5][11]. Core Insights - The 2025 government work report first introduced "child-rearing subsidies," with Hohhot being the first city to release substantial subsidy details. Families having one child will receive a one-time subsidy of 10,000 yuan, while those with two children will receive 50,000 yuan distributed over five years, and families with three or more children will receive 100,000 yuan over ten years. This initiative is expected to stimulate long-term consumption related to maternal and infant products [3][4]. - The introduction of child-rearing subsidies aims to alleviate family economic pressure and promote long-term balanced population development. The declining birth rate and increasing aging population in China necessitate an optimized population structure. The subsidies are expected to enhance people's willingness to have children, thereby stimulating population growth and alleviating social pressures from aging [4]. Summary by Sections Government Initiatives - The government work report emphasizes the need for improved social security and service policies, including the introduction of child-rearing subsidies to encourage childbirth and enhance early childhood services [3][4]. Economic Impact - The subsidies are projected to directly stimulate consumption in maternal and infant-related sectors in the short term, with recommendations to focus on industries such as baby care, dairy products, toys, and children's clothing. In the long term, these subsidies and related services are expected to boost birth rates and support the maternal and infant industry chain, including assisted reproduction, genetic testing, childcare services, and education [4]. Regional Focus - Hohhot's initiative serves as a significant example, with the city's average disposable income in 2024 expected to be less than 60,000 yuan, making the subsidies particularly impactful. Other cities are anticipated to follow suit with similar subsidy programs [3][4].