KAIYUAN SECURITIES·2025-03-17 06:03Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive" (maintained) [1] Core Viewpoints - The humanoid robot production year is seen as a pivotal moment, with significant capital expenditure expected in the supply chain, particularly for core equipment and key consumables [5][11] - Major manufacturers like Tesla have set ambitious production targets for humanoid robots, aiming for a tenfold increase in output over the next two years [5][11] - The domestic supply chain is rapidly preparing for increased production capacity, with companies like Top Group and Sanhua Intelligent Control announcing substantial investments [12][11] Summary by Sections 1. Humanoid Robot Production - The first automated factory by Figure aims to produce 12,000 humanoid robots annually, marking the start of commercial operations [5][11] - The financing scale for domestic embodied intelligent robots in early 2025 is approaching the total for the entire year of 2024 [5][11] 2. Key Components and Market Opportunities 2.1 Motors - Each humanoid robot is expected to use approximately 62 motors, leading to a projected market expansion of 25.4 billion yuan for motors when producing one million robots [6][13] - Key equipment for motor production includes automatic winding machines and balancing machines, with market demands estimated at 2.71 billion yuan and 930 million yuan respectively for these machines [20][21] 2.2 Reducers - Each humanoid robot will utilize around 38 reducers, with a total market expansion of 9.6 billion yuan anticipated for one million robots [24][27] - The core processes for reducers involve gear processing precision and dynamic balance stability, with market demands for gear processing machines and balancing machines estimated at 1.2 billion yuan and 670 million yuan respectively [31][32] 2.3 Screws - Each robot is expected to use about 44 screws, leading to a market expansion of 23 billion yuan for screws when producing one million robots [35][38] - The core processes include thread processing and precision detection, with market demands for screw thread grinding machines and automatic straightening machines estimated at 2.67 billion yuan and 730 million yuan respectively [40][41] 2.4 Bearings - Each humanoid robot will require approximately 70-90 bearings, with a projected market expansion of 1.54 billion yuan for bearings when producing one million robots [42][45] - The core processes for bearings include grinding and detection, with market demands for grinding machines and detection equipment estimated at 200 million yuan and 90 million yuan respectively [49][50] 3. Investment Recommendations and Beneficiary Companies - Focus on core equipment manufacturers with high elasticity and excellent competitive landscape [54] - Recommended beneficiary companies include: - For balancing equipment: Jizhi Co., Ltd. - For winding equipment: Tianzhong Precision - For processing machines and grinding machines: Qin Chuan Machine Tool, benefiting companies include Zhejiang Haideman, Huachen Equipment, and Rifa Precision [54]