鼓励生育政策力度提升，重视乳业板块机遇

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the dairy products industry [1]. Core Insights - The government's increased focus on pro-natalist policies and the rapid implementation of related measures are expected to boost dairy consumption, particularly through the introduction of child-rearing subsidies [2][3]. - The dairy industry's fundamentals are believed to have reached a bottom, with expectations of a gradual recovery in the coming quarters, driven by both supply-side adjustments and demand-side policy support [4][5]. Summary by Sections Policy Developments - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes the formulation of pro-natalist policies and the issuance of child-rearing subsidies, with various local governments already implementing related measures [2]. - Specific subsidy details from Hohhot include a one-time payment of 10,000 yuan for the first child, 50,000 yuan for the second child (10,000 yuan per year until the child is 5), and 100,000 yuan for the third child and beyond (10,000 yuan per year until the child is 10) [2]. Market Dynamics - The encouragement of childbirth is expected to drive dairy consumption, particularly in infant formula and other dairy products, supported by government subsidies [3]. - The introduction of a "one cup of milk" subsidy for new mothers, providing 3,000 yuan in vouchers for dairy products, is seen as a significant initiative to stimulate consumption [3]. Industry Outlook - The report indicates that the dairy industry's fundamentals have confirmed a bottom, with expectations of a recovery in milk prices by Q3 2025 due to ongoing supply-side adjustments [4]. - The report highlights that major dairy companies like Mengniu and Yili are expected to benefit from the anticipated recovery, with Mengniu's profit forecast indicating a significant reduction in losses due to prior asset impairments [4][5]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading dairy companies, including Yili, Mengniu, and regional players like New Dairy, as they are expected to benefit from the recovery in the dairy sector [5]. - Specific stock recommendations include Yili (29.75 yuan, Buy), Mengniu (19.8 yuan, Buy), New Dairy (15.3 yuan, Buy), and others, with projected earnings per share (EPS) growth anticipated in the coming years [6].