2月金融数据点评：二季度或是“择机降准降息”的关键窗口

Group 1: Social Financing and Credit Trends - In February, new social financing (社融) increased by CNY 2.23 trillion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 727.4 billion, with the stock growth rate rising to 8.2%[11] - Government bonds were the main support for social financing, with a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.1 trillion, while corporate loans weakened significantly[11] - Corporate short-term loans added CNY 330 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 200 billion, and medium to long-term loans added CNY 540 billion, a decrease of CNY 750 billion[24] Group 2: Household Financing and Demand - Household short-term loans decreased by CNY 274.1 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 212.7 billion, while medium to long-term loans decreased by CNY 11.5 billion, a year-on-year decrease of CNY 1.12 billion[25] - The demand for household loans remains weak, influenced by a low base last year and a wait-and-see attitude among consumers due to policy gaps around the Spring Festival[25] - In February, the transaction area of commercial housing in 30 major cities increased by 32% year-on-year, indicating a potential lag between loan issuance and housing transactions[25] Group 3: Monetary Supply and Economic Outlook - M1 growth rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 0.1%, while M2 growth rate remained stable at 7.0%[40] - The increase in fiscal deposits was CNY 729.6 billion, a year-on-year increase of CNY 1.11 trillion, contributing to the stability of M2 growth[42] - The second quarter may be a key window for potential interest rate cuts, supported by a lower base from last year and improving financing demand as debt pressures ease[46]