AIA(01299) 交银国际证券·2025-03-17 07:03Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating to AIA Group (1299 HK) with a target price of HKD 84.00, indicating a potential upside of 37.1% from the current closing price of HKD 61.25 [1][2][6]. Core Insights - The new business value for 2024 is expected to grow by 18%, aligning with the report's expectations but falling short of market expectations by 2%. The new business value ratio stands at 54.5%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 1.9 percentage points, primarily due to changes in product structure [6]. - The Hong Kong market contributes the largest share to new business value at 35%, with a year-on-year growth of 23%. Local business and mainland visitor new business values have increased by 24% and 22% respectively [6]. - The company has received approval to enter four new provinces in mainland China, indicating sustained growth potential in this market. The company aims to enter 1-2 new provinces annually [6]. - The operational profit for 2024 is expected to grow by 7% year-on-year, with earnings per share (EPS) projected to increase by 12%, surpassing the company's guidance [6]. - AIA Group plans to return 75% of its net free surplus to shareholders through dividends and share buybacks, with a proposed new USD 1.6 billion share repurchase plan [6]. Financial Overview - Revenue projections for AIA Group are as follows: USD 6,638 million in 2023, increasing to USD 9,712 million in 2025E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 10.3% for 2023 and 41.3% for 2024 [5][7]. - Net profit is expected to rise from USD 3,764 million in 2023 to USD 7,111 million in 2025E, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 16.7% in 2023 and 91.2% in 2024 [5][7]. - The price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is projected to decrease from 23.8 in 2023 to 11.6 in 2025E, indicating improved valuation metrics over the forecast period [5][7]. - The company's embedded value (EV) is expected to grow from USD 69,035 million in 2024 to USD 73,456 million in 2025E, with a year-on-year growth rate of 6.4% [7][8]. Key Financial Metrics - The operational profit (OPAT) is forecasted to be USD 6,605 million in 2024, with a year-on-year growth of 6.3% [7][8]. - The new business value is projected to reach USD 5,084 million in 2025E, with a growth rate of 7.9% [7][8]. - The return on equity (ROE) is expected to be 16.3% in 2025E, reflecting a slight decrease from previous years [7][8].