Guoxin Securities·2025-03-17 07:25Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform the Market" rating for the home appliance industry [6][11][12]. Core Insights - The home appliance sector is experiencing a recovery driven by government subsidy policies, with offline retail sales of major appliances showing significant growth in early 2025. Online demand for small kitchen appliances has also rebounded [1][2][16]. - In January and February 2025, the total retail sales of home appliances increased by 1.4% online and 10.2% offline year-on-year, with offline sales benefiting from the "old-for-new" subsidy policy [2][17]. - The export value of home appliances in the first two months of 2025 grew by 8% year-on-year, continuing a positive growth trend despite a high base from the previous year [3][26]. Summary by Sections Retail Performance - Offline retail sales of major appliances showed strong growth, with specific categories like air conditioners, refrigerators, and washing machines increasing by 21.4%, 5.5%, and 13.1% respectively in early 2025. Online sales for these categories varied, with some experiencing declines [2][17]. - The small kitchen appliance segment saw a notable recovery in online sales, with January showing a decline of 12.9% and February rebounding by 27.3% [2][17]. Export Trends - The export volume of home appliances reached 6.9 billion units in the first two months of 2025, marking a 9.4% increase year-on-year. The export value in RMB was 1093.9 billion, reflecting a 7.6% increase [3][26]. Company Performance - iRobot reported a significant revenue decline of 44.1% in Q4 2024, facing challenges in major markets such as the US and Europe. The company's gross margin also decreased, indicating pressure on profitability [4][31]. Market Data Tracking - The home appliance sector achieved a relative return of +0.28% this week, outperforming the broader market [5][36]. - Raw material prices for copper and aluminum increased by 1.5% and 0.2% respectively, while cold-rolled steel prices rose by 2.0% [5][37]. Investment Recommendations - The report recommends several companies within the home appliance sector, including Midea Group, Haier Smart Home, TCL Smart Home, and Gree Electric, all rated as "Outperform the Market" [6][12][50].