Changjiang Securities·2025-03-17 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [10]. Core Views - The company, COSCO Shipping Energy Transportation Co., Ltd., specializes in energy transportation with a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, ranking first globally. The business segments include domestic oil transportation, LNG transportation, and foreign trade oil transportation, each with distinct characteristics [2][6]. - The domestic and LNG segments provide stability, while the foreign trade segment offers significant profit elasticity. The easing of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and tightening sanctions on Iran are expected to boost oil transportation demand, creating a favorable cycle for the industry [2][9]. Summary by Sections Introduction: Geopolitical Restructuring of Oil Transportation - The past two years have seen high average oil transportation rates, but seasonal demand has been weak due to limited actual demand and the impact of "shadow fleets" on oil transportation needs. The end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increasing sanctions on Iran may lead to a restructuring of oil trade patterns [6][16]. COSCO Shipping Energy: A Leader in Energy Logistics - COSCO Shipping Energy is a subsidiary of China COSCO Shipping Group, focusing on the transportation of oil and LNG. By January 2025, the company will have a fleet capacity of 20.5 million DWT, holding a 3.1% share of the global market [6][27]. Business Stability and Elasticity - The company’s business segments exhibit a balance of stability and elasticity. The foreign trade oil transportation segment is cyclical, while domestic oil and LNG transportation provide stable revenue and profit margins [39][44]. Foreign Trade Oil Transportation: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The foreign trade oil transportation segment is characterized by significant cyclicality. Factors such as the potential end of the Russia-Ukraine conflict and increased sanctions on Iran are expected to reverse current supply-demand challenges [8][53]. Investment Recommendations: LNG as a Safety Net - The company’s LNG and domestic oil transportation segments provide a safety net, while foreign trade oil transportation offers upward elasticity. The expansion of the fleet is projected to enhance performance, with profits from LNG and domestic oil transportation expected to grow by 55% over the next four years [9][50]. Financial Projections - The company’s projected net profits for 2024, 2025, and 2026 are estimated at 3.96 billion, 5.66 billion, and 6.53 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding P/E ratios of 13.6, 9.5, and 8.3 [9].