ADAMA(000553) 光大证券·2025-03-17 08:14Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, indicating an expected investment return that will outperform the market benchmark by more than 15% over the next 6-12 months [6][15]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 29.49 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 10.04% year-on-year, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of -2.90 billion yuan, representing an increase in losses by 80.79% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s gross margin improved by 2.1 percentage points to 22.9% in 2024, driven by inventory destocking of high-cost raw materials and an improved product mix [2]. - The company’s operating cash flow increased by 43.7% year-on-year to 3.76 billion yuan in 2024, attributed to strict procurement management and enhanced collection efforts [2]. - The company is focusing on expanding its differentiated product line in response to farmer needs and improving agricultural efficiency, with a new product introduction rate of 22% in 2024 [3]. - The company’s net profit forecasts for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are projected at 133 million yuan, 465 million yuan, and 807 million yuan respectively, indicating a recovery in profitability as the agricultural protection industry gradually improves [3]. Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In 2024, the company achieved a revenue of 29.49 billion yuan, a decline of 10.04% from the previous year, and a net profit of -2.90 billion yuan, with losses increasing by 80.79% year-on-year [1]. - The company’s Q4 2024 revenue was 7.97 billion yuan, down 1.90% year-on-year but up 20.44% quarter-on-quarter [1]. Product and Market Strategy - The company’s sales volume for plant protection products was 644,000 tons in 2024, a slight decrease of 1.3%, while the average price fell by 9.5% [2]. - The company is expanding its differentiated product line, with new products launched in various global markets, contributing significantly to sales [3]. Profitability and Cash Flow - The gross margin improved to 22.9% in 2024, and operating cash flow increased to 3.76 billion yuan, reflecting better cash management practices [2]. - The company incurred asset impairment losses of 961 million yuan in 2024, which impacted overall performance [2]. Future Outlook - The company’s net profit is expected to recover in the coming years, with forecasts of 133 million yuan in 2025, 465 million yuan in 2026, and 807 million yuan in 2027 [3].