石油石化行业石化运输周报（2025.3.10-2025.3.16）：中型油轮运价持续改善，VLCC运价维持相对高位

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" [6] Core Viewpoints - The oil transportation market shows mixed trends with VLCC rates under pressure due to slow cargo release and excess tonnage, while medium-sized tanker rates are improving. The market sentiment is supported by OPEC+'s plan to increase oil production in April [7][8] - The LNG market is experiencing a slight increase in spot rates for certain vessel types, but year-on-year comparisons show significant declines [3][4] Summary by Sections Oil Transportation Market - In the week of March 10-16, 2025, the BDTI composite index averaged 909.2 points, up 3.1% week-on-week but down 23.9% year-on-year. VLCC TCE averaged $38,329/day, down 2.0% week-on-week and down 21.3% year-on-year [10] - Suezmax TCE averaged $44,715/day, up 20.9% week-on-week and up 18.9% year-on-year. Aframax TCE averaged $27,030/day, down 5.9% week-on-week and down 35.2% year-on-year [10] - The medium-sized tanker market is seeing steady recovery, particularly in the Mediterranean routes, while the product tanker market is benefiting from increased demand in Middle East-Japan and Middle East-Europe routes [7][19] LNG Transportation Market - In the same week, spot rates for 174,000 cubic meter LNG carriers averaged $23,750/day, up 6.7% week-on-week but down 59.5% year-on-year. For 160,000 cubic meter vessels, the rate was $13,500/day, up 12.5% week-on-week but down 71.8% year-on-year [3][37] - The LNG market in China reported a price of 4,449 RMB/ton, down 1.9% week-on-week but up 8.6% year-on-year. The import volume of LNG in December 2024 was 7.14 million tons, up 16.9% month-on-month but down 15.0% year-on-year [43][48] Demand Side - As of March 14, 2025, Brent and WTI crude oil prices were $71.6 and $66.7 per barrel, respectively, with slight declines from the previous week. The U.S. crude oil production in January 2025 was 13 million barrels/day, down 4.4% month-on-month but up 3.5% year-on-year [23][24] - China's crude oil imports in December 2024 were 47.84 million tons, down 1.4% month-on-month and down 1.1% year-on-year [25] Supply Side - As of December 2024, the total oil tanker fleet was 669 million deadweight tons, up 0.6% year-on-year. The VLCC fleet size was 279 million deadweight tons, remaining stable year-on-year [35] - The LNG fleet totaled 120.1 million cubic meters as of November 2024, up 6.8% year-on-year, with the 17,000-20,000 cubic meter segment growing by 2% [49]