投资策略：两会后A股市场怎么看？

Core Insights - The report indicates that the A-share market has been experiencing a rebound since the beginning of the year, driven by factors such as the Deep Seek catalyst and ample liquidity, with the technology sector leading the gains [1][5][6] - As of March 14, 2024, the Shanghai Composite Index has risen by 26.9% since September 24, 2023, suggesting that the current rally is still within the spring market phase, requiring stronger fundamental and policy support for a larger-scale rebound or bull market [1][11][12] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the effectiveness and timing of policy implementation, the strength and sustainability of economic recovery, and the performance of Q1 earnings reports from listed companies to gauge future market direction [2][16] Market Dynamics - The report notes that the current market has entered a phase of sector rotation, with funds moving from previously high-performing sectors to lower-valued sectors, indicating a potential shift towards the later stages of the current market rally [2][13] - The report highlights that the Deep Seek model's launch has significantly boosted the AI industry chain, with notable capital expenditures from major companies like Alibaba, which plans to invest CNY 31.775 billion in a single quarter, reflecting an 80% increase [5][6] - The report also discusses the impact of U.S.-China trade tensions, noting that the actual damage from U.S. tariffs has been less than expected, which has contributed to a more favorable outlook for the Chinese market [7][10] Economic Indicators - The report mentions that economic data has not shown significant weakness as of February 2025, with manufacturing PMI remaining above the threshold, providing support for the stock market [7][11] - It is noted that the Chinese government has implemented various supportive policies, including a reduction in the reserve requirement ratio and the issuance of long-term special bonds, aimed at stabilizing the capital market and supporting economic growth [6][10] - The report anticipates that if the growth momentum in the second quarter exceeds expectations, the market may reach new highs, while a potential adjustment could occur if policy measures are only partially implemented or if growth momentum weakens [16]