国内观察：2025年1-2月经济数据：开门红已现，关注后续政策落实

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, the total retail sales of consumer goods increased by 4.0% year-on-year, up from 3.7% in the previous period[3] - Fixed asset investment (FAI) grew by 4.1% year-on-year, compared to 3.2% previously[3] - The industrial added value for large-scale industries rose by 5.9% year-on-year, slightly down from 6.2% in December 2024[3] Industrial Performance - The high-tech manufacturing sector showed significant growth, with added value increasing by 9.1%, accelerating by 1.2 percentage points from December 2024[3] - The equipment manufacturing sector outperformed the overall industrial growth, achieving a year-on-year increase of 10.6%[3] - Industrial production growth remained stable, with a slight decline of 0.3 percentage points from the previous month[3] Consumer Trends - The consumption recovery is still dependent on further policy implementation, with the service retail sector growing by 4.9% year-on-year, down 1.3 percentage points from 2024[3] - The automotive sector's sales lagged behind last year, while non-automotive retail sales grew by 4.8%[3] - The expansion of the "old-for-new" policy is showing effects, particularly in categories like communication equipment and jewelry, which saw notable increases[3] Investment Insights - High-tech industry investment rose by 9.7% year-on-year, significantly above the overall FAI growth rate[3] - Infrastructure investment maintained a high growth rate of 9.94%, while narrow infrastructure investment slightly declined to 5.6%[5] - Real estate sales for new homes fell by 5.1% year-on-year, indicating a need for new policy measures to stabilize the market[3] Risks and Outlook - Potential risks include slower-than-expected policy implementation and ongoing downward pressure in the real estate market[5] - The U.S. economic recession poses a risk to exports, necessitating a focus on expanding domestic demand as a key policy direction for the year[3]