MMG-五矿资源：利润显著提升，锌铜产量稳步增长-20250318

Investment Rating - The report maintains an OUTPERFORM rating for the company [2][5] Core Insights - The company has shown significant profit improvement, with a net profit increase of 200% year-on-year in 2024, reaching US $366 million [3][14] - The production of copper and zinc has steadily increased, with copper production at 400,000 tons in 2024, up 15% year-on-year, and zinc production at 220,000 tons, up 8% year-on-year [3][14] - The company is advancing major projects, including the successful development of Chalcobamba and the expansion of Kinsevere, which is expected to ramp up production in 2025 [15][17] - The company plans to increase production capacity at Khoemacau to 60,000 tons/year by 2026-2027 and aims for a target of 130,000 tons/year by 2028 [15][17] Financial Projections - Revenue is projected to grow from US$ 4.479 billion in 2024 to US $5.334 billion in 2025, representing a 19% increase [4][12] - Net profit is expected to rise significantly, with projections of US$ 472 million in 2025 and US $636 million in 2027 [4][12] - The company anticipates capital expenditures of US$ 1.2 billion to US $1.3 billion in 2025, with significant allocations for Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [16][17] Earnings Forecast - The expected EPS for 2025 is US$ 0.04, with projections of US $0.05 for both 2026 and 2027 [5][18] - The target price is set at HK$ 4.65, based on a 15x PE valuation for 2025 [5][18] Production Guidance - For 2025, copper production is expected to be between 470,000 and 520,000 tons, with specific contributions from Las Bambas, Khoemacau, and Kinsevere [9][16] - Zinc production is projected to be between 310,000 and 340,000 tons [9][16]