每经AI快讯，港股铜业股继续走低，截至发稿，洛阳钼业(03993.HK)跌4.21%，报14.8港元；江西铜业 股份(00358.HK)跌3.95%，报31.58港元；五矿资源(01208.HK)跌2.68%，报6.53港元；中国有色矿业 (01258.HK)跌2.21%，报13.69港元。 ...

智通财经APP获悉，铜业股继续走低，截至发稿，洛阳钼业(03993)跌4.21%，报14.8港元；江西铜业股 份(00358)跌3.95%，报31.58港元；五矿资源(01208)跌2.68%，报6.53港元；中国有色矿业(01258)跌 2.21%，报13.69港元。 消息面上，铜价多空博弈激烈。供给端，印尼Grasberg停产、刚果（金）地震、艾芬豪矿震等事件持续 发酵。但国际贸易局势可能存在反复，美联储的调息政策也存在不确定性，这些因素或对铜价造成一定 扰动。 中信建投期货发布研报称，总体来看，受美国政府停摆带来的经济数据延期公布，市场避险情绪有所升 温，预计短期铜价承压震荡整理为主。高盛则指出，铜价短期价格上行空间受限于每吨11,000美元，虽 然长期看好铜价，但认为市场短期内仍将保持供过于求，短期价格上行空间受限。 ...

铜业股继续走低，截至发稿，洛阳钼业（603993）(03993)跌4.21%，报14.8港元；江西铜业（600362） 股份(00358)跌3.95%，报31.58港元；五矿资源(01208)跌2.68%，报6.53港元；中国有色矿业(01258)跌 2.21%，报13.69港元。 中信建投（601066）期货发布研报称，总体来看，受美国政府停摆带来的经济数据延期公布，市场避险 情绪有所升温，预计短期铜价承压震荡整理为主。高盛则指出，铜价短期价格上行空间受限于每吨 11,000美元，虽然长期看好铜价，但认为市场短期内仍将保持供过于求，短期价格上行空间受限。 消息面上，铜价多空博弈激烈。供给端，印尼Grasberg停产、刚果(金)地震、艾芬豪矿震等事件持续发 酵。但国际贸易局势可能存在反复，美联储的调息政策也存在不确定性，这些因素或对铜价造成一定扰 动。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The traditional metal resources are becoming a new lifeline amid the technological wave and energy transition, with challenges in supply for non-ferrous metals and potential long-term turning points in the sector [1] Group 1: Tin Market Insights - AI servers consume significantly more tin than traditional servers, leading to an increase in tin demand, with an expected annual growth rate of 44.5% in global tin consumption from 2025 to 2030 [2] - Limited new supply capacity for tin in the medium to long term, combined with growth in emerging fields like AI and robotics, as well as steady growth in electric vehicles and photovoltaics, supports a bullish long-term outlook for tin prices [2] Group 2: Precious Metals Outlook - The precious metals sector is currently at the lower end of historical valuation, indicating potential for sustained recovery, with recommendations to focus on companies like Shandong Gold, Zhaojin Mining, and others [3] - The gold-silver ratio is currently high and is expected to converge, suggesting a focus on silver investments [3] - Future investments in power grids and growth in AI data centers, along with relatively inelastic copper supply, are likely to elevate copper price levels [3] Group 3: Copper Investment Opportunities - Global copper supply is expected to face long-term constraints due to insufficient capital expenditure in mining, which may limit supply growth [4] - Anticipated interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve could catalyze a new upward cycle in copper prices, making the copper sector an attractive investment opportunity [4] - Recommended companies include Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and others [4] Group 4: Cobalt Market Dynamics - The implementation of export quotas for cobalt from the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to reduce exports by over 100,000 tons in the next two years, leading to an estimated market shortage of about 30,000 tons in 2024 [5] - The tightening supply in the cobalt market is likely to maintain high price levels, with potential for further increases [5] Group 5: Overall Non-Ferrous Metals Sector - Despite market reactions, there remains investment space in the non-ferrous metals sector, primarily driven by expectations of further interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve, which could boost prices [6] - Precious and industrial metals are sensitive to global interest rate environments, indicating potential for price increases [6] - The current valuation of the non-ferrous metals sector in Hong Kong shows an advantage over A-shares [6]

债券研究 /[Table_Date] 2025.10.14 避险潮下，海外债资产如何选择 本报告导读： 美国政府"停摆"与关税威胁推动全球避险情绪升温，主权信用风险重估叠加违约 预期上升，建议配置长端发达国债与新兴市场主权债、减持高收益信用。 投资要点： | [Table_Authors] | 王一凡(分析师) | | --- | --- | | | 021-38031722 | | | wangyifan4@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524120001 | | | 唐元懋(分析师) | | | 0755-23976753 | | | tangyuanmao@gtht.com | | 登记编号 | S0880524040002 | [Table_Report] 相关报告 主要买方情绪回暖，但偏好短期债券 2025.10.13 地方债长端利差收窄，四季度已披露发行计划 8966 亿 2025.10.12 贸易摩擦下 REIT 市场的危与机 2025.10.12 迎接节后修复行情 2025.10.12 贸易摩擦重启，债市的"不变"与"变" 2025.10.12 证 券 研 究 报 告 请务 ...

当前，大台沟铁矿已具备开发条件，其开发主体——万利加集团子公司亿众鑫公司正面临核心路径抉 择：是选择自主开采，直面900-2700米埋藏深度带来的地温、岩爆等技术难题，承担超百亿初期投资； 还是借鉴花红沟模式，通过公开招标引入五矿、宝武等矿业巨头合作开发，以专业技术加速开发进度， 实现快速达产。 从行业影响来看，大台沟铁矿的开发承载着改写中国铁矿石贸易格局的重任。我国每年进口铁矿石超10 亿吨，交易额近万亿，进口依存度超50%，而大台沟全面投产后，可满足国内10%-15%的铁矿石需求， 将显著削弱必和必拓等海外巨头的定价霸权。与此同时，在近期必和必拓等澳企已开始接受30%铁矿石 贸易人民币结算的背景下，大台沟的投产将进一步巩固中国在铁矿石贸易中的定价权，推动人民币在大 宗商品贸易中的应用，其战略意义与金融价值不可估量。 不仅如此，大台沟铁矿的深部开采技术探索，还将为中国开发西非西芒杜铁矿等海外超深矿床提供关键 技术储备，形成技术示范效应。 如今，花红沟的高价开标已为大台沟铺就了清晰的价值发现之路。这座沉睡地下的"铁色宝藏"，究竟会 选择"自主开发"深耕细作，还是"合作共赢"加速落地，亿众鑫公司的下一步决策，不 ...

该行预计，铜价短期价格上行空间受限于每吨11,000美元，虽然长期看好铜价，但认为市场短期内仍将 保持供过于求，短期价格上行空间受限。(格隆汇) | 代码 | 名称 | 最新价 | 涨跌幅 へ | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 01258 | 中国有色矿业 | 14.680 | -5.72% | | 02099 | 中国黄金国际 | 138.300 | -3.96% | | 00358 | 江西铜业股份 | 34.360 | -3.75% | | 00661 | 中国大冶有色金 | 0.096 | -3.03% | | 01208 | 五矿资源 | 7.110 | -2.60% | | 02336 | 硕奥国际 | | 0.181 -1.09% | 港股铜业股呈现高开低走行情，截至目前，中国有色矿业跌近6%，中国黄金国际、江西铜业股份跌近 4%，中国大冶有色金属跌3%，五矿资源跌2.6%。 消息上，高盛发表报告，目前铜、铝和锌的高价格反映投资者对2026年看涨情绪，因美联储局减息、美 元走弱的预期以及与人工智能相关的资本支出。该行预计2026及27年铜价将保持在每吨10,000至11 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies by Hong Kong Stock Connect holding ratios are Green Power Environmental (70.05%), China Telecom (69.96%), and COSCO Shipping Energy (68.73%) [1][2] - The companies with the largest increase in holding amounts over the last five trading days are Zijin Mining (+1 billion), Kuaishou (+0.981 billion), and Pop Mart (+0.624 billion) [1][2] - The companies with the largest decrease in holding amounts over the last five trading days are SMIC (-2.258 billion), Hua Hong Semiconductor (-1.222 billion), and Alibaba (-0.714 billion) [1][4] Hong Kong Stock Connect Holding Ratios - Green Power Environmental (01330) has a holding of 283 million shares, representing 70.05% [2] - China Telecom (00728) has a holding of 9.711 billion shares, representing 69.96% [2] - COSCO Shipping Energy (01138) has a holding of 891 million shares, representing 68.73% [2] - Other notable companies include Changfei Optical Fiber (06869) at 68.48% and China Shenhua (01088) at 67.25% [2] Recent Increases in Holdings - Zijin Mining (02899) saw an increase of 1 billion in holding amount, with a change of 29.19 million shares [2][4] - Kuaishou (01024) experienced an increase of 0.981 billion, with a change of 12.19 million shares [2][4] - Pop Mart (09992) had an increase of 0.624 billion, with a change of 2.39 million shares [2][4] Recent Decreases in Holdings - SMIC (00981) had a decrease of 2.258 billion in holding amount, with a change of 28.18 million shares [4] - Hua Hong Semiconductor (01347) saw a decrease of 1.222 billion, with a change of 13.86 million shares [4] - Alibaba (09988) experienced a decrease of 0.714 billion, with a change of 4.39 million shares [4]

金力永磁(06680)：金力永磁发布公告，该集团预计2025年前三季度(2025年1月-9月)归属于上市公司股 东的净利润5.05亿元-5.5亿元人民币，同比增加157%-179%；第三季度归属于上市公司股东的净利润2亿 元-2.45亿元人民币，同比增加159-217%。 从需求端来看，广晟有色（600259）此前在半年报中指出，进入7月后，随着市场需求改善及海外高价 订单回流，氧化镨钕价格呈现强势反弹趋势，行业景气度逐步提升。北方稀土今年9月在接受机构调研 时表示，近年来，在绿色低碳及"万物电驱"发展的背景下，磁材需求量增幅在10%左右，预计2025年将 保持这一趋势。风电、新能源汽车以及人形机器人、低空经济等新兴领域迅速发展，为下游需求增长提 供有力支撑。 稀土精矿价格上涨，推动相关企业的营收和利润大幅增长。北方稀土预计今年前三季度归属于上市公司 股东的净利润为15.1亿元至15.7亿元，同比增加272.54%到287.34%。实现扣非净利润13.3亿元至13.9亿 元，同比增加399.90%到422.46%。包钢股份今年上半年实现营收313.29亿元，归属于上市公司股东的净 利润1.51亿元，同比增长3 ...

Core Insights - The top three companies with the highest short positions as of October 3 are COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919), Ganfeng Lithium (01772), and ZTE Corporation (00763), with short ratios of 15.66%, 15.25%, and 15.16% respectively [1][2] - Ganfeng Lithium (01772) saw the largest absolute increase in short positions, rising by 1.20%, followed by Minmetals Resources (01208) with an increase of 0.96%, and Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (01052) with an increase of 0.76% [1][2] - The companies with the largest decreases in short positions include GCL-Poly Energy (03800), which decreased by 3.16%, followed by Dongfang Electric (01072) with a decrease of 2.03%, and Jinxin Fertility (01951) with a decrease of 0.76% [1][3] Summary of Short Positions - **Top 10 Companies by Short Ratio** - COSCO Shipping Holdings (01919): 15.66% (from 437 million shares to 451 million shares) - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): 15.25% (from 62.30 million shares to 67.64 million shares) - ZTE Corporation (00763): 15.16% (from 113 million shares to 115 million shares) - CATL (03750): 13.83% (from 21.12 million shares to 21.57 million shares) - Vanke (02202): 12.63% (from 268 million shares to 279 million shares) - Ping An Insurance (02318): 12.59% (from 959 million shares to 938 million shares) - Zijin Mining (02899): 12.58% (from 750 million shares to 754 million shares) - MicroPort Medical (00853): 11.10% (from 213 million shares to 212 million shares) - Hansoh Pharmaceutical (01276): 11.01% (from 28.01 million shares to 28.43 million shares) - Fuyao Glass (06865): 10.85% (from 49.22 million shares to 47.94 million shares) [2] - **Top 10 Companies with Increased Short Positions** - Ganfeng Lithium (01772): Increased by 1.20% (from 14.05% to 15.25%) - Minmetals Resources (01208): Increased by 0.96% (from 1.96% to 2.93%) - Yuexiu Transport Infrastructure (01052): Increased by 0.76% (from 1.08% to 1.84%) - Jinli Permanent Magnet (06680): Increased by 0.66% (from 7.76% to 8.42%) - China Civil Aviation Information Network (00696): Increased by 0.58% (from 6.63% to 7.21%) [2] - **Top 10 Companies with Decreased Short Positions** - GCL-Poly Energy (03800): Decreased by 3.16% (from 11.76% to 8.59%) - Dongfang Electric (01072): Decreased by 2.03% (from 6.78% to 4.75%) - Jinxin Fertility (01951): Decreased by 0.76% (from 10.61% to 9.85%) - Yangtze Optical Fibre and Cable (06869): Decreased by 0.75% (from 7.03% to 6.28%) - Shanghai Electric (02727): Decreased by 0.72% (from 2.25% to 1.52%) [3][4]