五矿资源港交所公告，董事会预期公司截至2025年6月30日止半年度将录得权益持有人应占税后溢利净 额约3.4亿美元，而2024年同期为2100万美元。业绩提升主要由于拉斯邦巴斯矿山产量增加、单位生产 成本降低，以及铜、金、银等商品价格上涨。公司财务业绩仍在编制，相关数据可能调整。股东及潜在 投资者应审慎行事。 ...

Core Viewpoint - The recent announcement by President Trump regarding potential high tariffs on copper and pharmaceuticals has led to a decline in Hong Kong's stock market, with the Hang Seng Index falling below 24,000 points, reflecting increased macroeconomic risks and impacting market sentiment [1][4]. Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed down 1.06% at 23,892.32 points, with a total trading volume of 233.88 billion HKD. The Hang Seng China Enterprises Index fell 1.28%, while the Hang Seng Tech Index dropped 1.76% [1]. - Major blue-chip stocks experienced significant movements, with Henderson Land Development leading the decline, down 8.64% at 25.9 HKD, while China Biologic Products rose 10.06% to 5.91 HKD [2]. Sector Analysis - The technology sector saw a collective decline, with Alibaba down nearly 4% and Tencent over 1%. The copper sector was negatively impacted by Trump's tariff threats, leading to a drop in copper-related stocks [3][6]. - The innovative drug sector performed well, with Hengrui Medicine surging 15.61% to 69.6 HKD, indicating resilience amid broader market declines [3][4]. Specific Stock Movements - Macau's gaming sector showed strong performance, with Wynn Macau up 6.33% and Melco Resorts up 2.12%, driven by robust gaming revenue growth [4][5]. - Copper stocks faced significant declines, with Luoyang Molybdenum down 4.74% and Jiangxi Copper down 3.46%, reflecting market reactions to tariff announcements [5][6]. Commodity Prices - International gold prices fell below 3,300 USD per ounce, influenced by reduced safe-haven demand amid tariff uncertainties. Analysts expect gold prices to remain volatile within a range of 3,000 to 3,500 USD per ounce [7].

铜半年报 投资咨询业务资格 沪证监许可【2015】84 号 2025 年 7 月 8 日 紧平衡结构延续，铜价趋于上行 核心观点及策略 李婷 021-68555105 li.t@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0297587 投资咨询号：Z0011509 黄蕾 高慧 gao.h@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03099478 投资咨询号：Z0017785 王工建 wang.gj@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03084165 投资咨询号：Z0016301 赵凯熙 zhao.kx@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F03112296 投资咨询号：Z0021040 敬请参阅最后一页免责声明 1 / 30 huang.lei@jyqh.com.cn 从业资格号：F0307990 投资咨询号：Z0011692 要点 ⚫ IMF 下调 2025 年全球经济增长率预期至 2.8%，我们认 为贸易政策的不确定性将对全球供应链形成扰动，推 升美国经济的类滞涨风险，美联储或将谨慎抉择降息 时机；而欧元区显著摆脱高通胀和衰退压力，欧央行 或终止宽松周期。国内来看，中国经济面临稳增长和 外部承压的双重挑战， ...

Core Insights - The data indicates significant trading volume increases for various companies, suggesting heightened investor interest and potential market movements [1][2][3][4][5] Group 1: Companies with Notable Volume Increases - 阳光能源 (00757) reported a volume ratio of 2.35, indicating strong trading activity [2] - 长城汽车 (02333) had a volume ratio of 2.21, reflecting increased investor engagement [2] - 郑煤机 (00564) showed a volume ratio of 1.92, suggesting a notable rise in trading [2] Group 2: Additional Companies with Increased Trading Activity - 万国数据-SW (09698) recorded a volume ratio of 1.83, indicating significant market interest [2] - 映恩生物-B (09606) had a volume ratio of 1.78, reflecting heightened trading activity [2] - 超盈国际控股 (02111) reported a volume ratio of 1.71, suggesting increased investor focus [2] Group 3: Companies with Moderate Volume Ratios - 中国能源建设 (03996) had a volume ratio of 1.70, indicating a solid level of trading activity [2] - 亚信科技 (01675) reported a volume ratio of 1.60, reflecting moderate investor interest [2] - 金宝通 (00320) showed a volume ratio of 1.53, suggesting a rise in trading volume [2] Group 4: Companies with Lower Volume Ratios - 中国水务 (00855) had a volume ratio of 1.52, indicating stable trading activity [2] - 广汽集团 (02238) reported a volume ratio of 1.52, reflecting consistent investor engagement [2] - 凯莱英 (06821) showed a volume ratio of 1.52, suggesting steady trading interest [2]

Group 1: Copper Market Dynamics - Protests by small-scale mining operators in Peru have disrupted copper transportation, leading to a significant impact on the supply chain [1] - Copper prices have increased by 2.7% this week and nearly 14% since the beginning of the year, approaching historical highs due to rising demand from sectors like AI and renewable energy [1] - UBS has raised its copper price forecasts for 2025 and 2026 by 7% and 4% respectively, citing a recovery in demand driven by traditional markets in Europe and the US [2] Group 2: Supply and Demand Factors - Citic Securities notes that the copper market remains in a tight balance, with limited CAPEX and declining TC/RC fees, while economic stability in China and a soft landing in the US support copper prices [3] - UBS's optimistic outlook on copper prices is supported by favorable supply dynamics and long-term demand drivers, despite potential slowdowns in end-user demand due to tariff uncertainties [2] - Citic Securities predicts copper prices could rise to $10,000-$11,000 per ton in the second half of the year, contingent on macroeconomic policies and global economic recovery [3] Group 3: Key Companies in the Copper Sector - Notable copper resource companies listed in Hong Kong include Luoyang Molybdenum (03993), Zijin Mining (02899), Minmetals Resources (01208), and Jiangxi Copper (00358) [4]

Group 1: Copper Market Overview - International copper prices surged, with a peak of $9,984, and COMEX copper rising nearly 2% [1] - Goldman Sachs raised its 2025 LME copper price forecast from $9,140/ton to $9,890/ton, expecting a peak of $10,050 in August [1] - The optimism surrounding the U.S. "Big and Beautiful" bill and a significant drop in the U.S. dollar index contributed to the copper price increase [1] Group 2: Supply Dynamics - U.S. tariffs on copper, set at 25%, led to a significant reduction in LME copper inventory, with Asian warehouse stocks dropping from 200,000 tons to 60,000 tons, a decrease of 70% [2] - LME European inventory also saw a sharp decline of 44% in June, nearing multi-year lows [2] - The global copper inventory is under pressure due to increased demand and supply chain disruptions [2] Group 3: Demand Factors - China accounts for approximately 50% of global copper consumption, with increasing investments in power grids and infrastructure driving demand [2] - The rise in electric vehicle penetration is expected to further boost copper consumption in the future [2] - Recent PMI data from China indicates stable internal and external demand, supporting copper prices [2] Group 4: Company Insights - Luoyang Molybdenum plans to produce 650,200 tons of copper in 2024, a 55% increase, aiming for 800,000 to 1,000,000 tons by 2028 [3] - Zijin Mining has confirmed copper reserves of 50.43 million tons, with production targets of 1.07 million tons in 2024 and 1.15 million tons in 2025 [3] - Minmetals Resources, a mid-sized non-ferrous metal mining company, aims for a copper equity output of 265,000 tons in 2024, ranking third among domestic listed companies [3] Group 5: Major Production Highlights - Jiangxi Copper, the world's largest single copper smelter, expects to produce 2.29 million tons of cathode copper in 2024, a 9.28% increase [4] - The company plans to increase production to 2.37 million tons in 2025, along with growth in gold and sulfuric acid production [4]

彭博对基金持仓的分析显示，富达中华地区基金(Fidelity China Region Fund) 5月连续第三个月增持拼多 多ADR，清仓极氪。 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed down 0.17% at 24,284.15 points, while the Hang Seng Tech Index fell 0.07% to 5,341.43 points, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index decreased by 0.47% to 8,762.47 points [2] - The automotive, pharmaceutical, and banking sectors showed weakness, while the metals sector experienced gains [4] Metals Sector Performance - The metals sector saw significant gains, with Jiangxi Copper rising over 7%, Tianqi Lithium and Luoyang Molybdenum both increasing over 6%, and Zijin Mining among the top performers [4] - Notable stock performances included Luoyang Molybdenum at 6.26% with a market cap of 191.02 billion, Tianqi Lithium at 6.78% with a market cap of 56.97 billion, and Ganfeng Lithium at 2.74% with a market cap of 69.64 billion [5] Commodity Price Outlook - Goldman Sachs forecasts that copper prices will peak at approximately $10,050 per ton by August 2025 due to tightening supply in markets outside the U.S. [5] - Ping An Securities reports that the weakening of the U.S. dollar credit system will continue to drive precious metal prices higher, while industrial metals like copper and aluminum are expected to benefit from a loose monetary environment [5] Automotive Sector Dynamics - Xiaomi Group's stock rose by 3.6%, while major automotive stocks like Xpeng Motors, NIO, and BYD saw declines of 3.17%, 1.84%, and 1.19% respectively [6][7] - Market analysts suggest that the automotive sector may be impacted by Xiaomi's competitive pricing strategy for its new YU7 series, with expectations of monthly sales reaching 60,000 to 80,000 units [7] Banking Sector Trends - Chinese bank stocks experienced slight declines, with Luzhou Bank, Chongqing Bank, and China Merchants Bank dropping by 3.49%, 2.91%, and 2.39% respectively [8] - Recent reports indicate that insurance funds have been favoring high-dividend bank stocks, but this trend may be slowing down as investment teams shift focus towards technology innovation board companies [8] Financial Sector Developments - Huaxing Capital Holdings saw a significant intraday rise of nearly 38% before closing up 4.67% at HKD 4.48 per share, following its announcement of a $100 million investment in the Web 3.0 and cryptocurrency asset space [11] - The Hong Kong Securities and Futures Commission announced an increase in position limits for futures and options contracts on major indices, effective July 2, 2025, aimed at enhancing market flexibility [12]

金十数据6月23日讯，汇丰环球研究发表报告，考虑到五矿资源(01208.HK)平稳的营运和高于同业的盈 利增长，将目标价从2.7港元上调18.5%至3.2港元，但考虑到铜价下行风险及缺乏股息，该行认为，该 股目前估值合理，因此将评级从买入下调至持有。报告指，该股股价过去一个月上涨逾30%，已反映铜 产业的正面发展，及集团盈利前景改善。即使铜价上涨，该行也认为股价上涨空间有限，而下行风险正 在加剧。 汇丰升五矿资源目标价18.5%至3.2港元 评级降至持有 ...

Company Overview - Company is a global metal mining giant focused on upstream metal resources, operating internationally with headquarters in Melbourne, Australia [1] - The company has undergone two major transformations since its listing in Hong Kong in 1994, including the acquisition of MMG in 2010 and the purchase of the Las Bambas copper mine in 2014, significantly enhancing its resource strength [1] - In 2024, the company completed the acquisition of the Khoemacau copper mine in Botswana, adding a key copper asset to its portfolio, which now includes five overseas mines (3 copper and 2 zinc) [1] Financial Performance - Copper is the core metal, contributing significantly to revenue, with copper products generating $3.308 billion in revenue in 2024, accounting for 73.86% of total revenue [2] - Las Bambas mine alone contributed $2.978 billion in revenue, representing 66.48% of total revenue and $1.594 billion in EBITDA, which is 77.82% of the company's EBITDA [2] - The company achieved a net profit attributable to shareholders of $162 million in 2024, a substantial increase of 1699% year-on-year, primarily driven by strong performance from Las Bambas and the acquisition of Khoemacau [2] Production Outlook - Las Bambas is expected to return to normal operations in 2024, with copper production projected at 322,900 tons, and production guidance for 2025 set at 360,000 to 400,000 tons [3] - Kinsevere is transitioning from oxide to sulfide ore, with 2024 copper production expected at 45,000 tons and guidance for 2025 set at 63,000 to 69,000 tons, with a potential reduction in C1 costs [3] - Khoemacau, acquired in 2024, is projected to produce 31,000 tons of copper in 2024, with guidance for 2025 set at 43,000 to 53,000 tons, and expansion plans aiming for an annual capacity of 130,000 tons by 2028 [3] Industry Insights - The copper industry is experiencing tight supply and demand dynamics, with capital expenditures declining and resource depletion creating supply constraints [4] - The recent drop in copper prices is expected to have absorbed pessimistic demand forecasts, with downstream consumption likely to grow as prices stabilize [4] - The company is well-positioned to benefit from rising copper prices due to the growth potential of its three major copper projects and an improving financial structure [4] Profit Forecast and Investment Recommendation - The company is expected to see significant profit growth, with net profits projected at $420 million, $640 million, and $750 million for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, reflecting year-on-year increases of 162%, 50%, and 18% [4] - Earnings per share (EPS) are forecasted to be $0.03, $0.05, and $0.06 for the same years, corresponding to price-to-earnings (PE) ratios of 10.6, 7.1, and 6.0 [4] - Given the company's resource advantages and growth potential, a target price of HKD 3.5 is set, with an initial "buy" rating based on a valuation of 8.5 times the 2026 earnings [4]