GUILIN FUDA (603166) 西南证券·2025-03-17 14:23Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company with a target price of 15.84 CNY over the next six months, compared to the current price of 12.90 CNY [1]. Core Views - The company is transitioning into the robotics sector, aiming for a high-end intelligent manufacturing transformation. This strategic move is expected to create new profit growth points [7]. - The company has a strong position in the crankshaft business, with a gross margin of 29.7% in 2023, which is an increase of 3.5 percentage points year-on-year. The company is also expanding its precision forging capabilities to enhance control over the entire supply chain [7]. - The company has successfully opened overseas markets, with significant sales growth in large crankshafts and new energy gear products, indicating potential for future growth [7]. - The company has launched an equity incentive plan to boost confidence among management and core personnel, with specific profit targets set for the coming years [7]. Financial Summary - Revenue Forecast: The company expects revenues to grow from 1,352.32 million CNY in 2023 to 3,021.46 million CNY by 2026, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 25.46% [2][12]. - Net Profit Forecast: The net profit attributable to the parent company is projected to increase from 103.53 million CNY in 2023 to 400.71 million CNY in 2026, with a CAGR of 41.46% [2][12]. - Earnings Per Share (EPS): EPS is expected to rise from 0.16 CNY in 2023 to 0.62 CNY in 2026 [2][12]. - Return on Equity (ROE): ROE is forecasted to improve from 4.47% in 2023 to 13.06% in 2026 [2][12]. - Price-to-Earnings (PE) Ratio: The PE ratio is projected to decrease from 81 in 2023 to 21 in 2026, indicating a more attractive valuation over time [2][12]. Business Segments - Crankshaft Business: The company anticipates a revenue growth rate of 36.42% in 2024, driven by multiple new product launches and increased production capacity [9]. - New Energy Gear Products: Revenue from new energy electric drive gears is expected to grow significantly, with projections of 0.25 million CNY in 2024 and reaching 3 million CNY by 2026 [12]. - Clutch and Other Products: The clutch segment is expected to see slower growth, while other business areas are projected to maintain steady growth rates [9][12]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that the company's strategic investments in robotics and new energy sectors, combined with its strong existing business in crankshafts, position it well for future growth. The equity incentive plan further aligns management's interests with shareholder value creation [7][12].