英大证券：每周投资早参：大盘突破3400点后，行情如何演绎？-20250318

Core Views - The report suggests that after the A-share index breaks through 3400 points, the market is expected to maintain a slow upward trend due to ample liquidity and continuous policy support, with a focus on verifying economic fundamentals and policies [3][17][19] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the performance of technology and consumer sectors as key factors for the sustainability of the market rally [3][17][19] Market Overview - Last week, the A-share market showed a strong performance, with the Shanghai Composite Index reaching a new high for the year at 3419.56 points, up 1.81% [7][19] - The consumer sector saw significant gains, particularly in dairy, food and beverage, and financial sectors, while technology stocks remained relatively subdued [3][10][19] Sector Analysis - Consumer Sector: The report highlights the collective rise in consumer stocks, driven by policies aimed at stimulating consumption, including increased credit support for retail and hospitality sectors [3][10][19] - Financial Sector: The financial sector is expected to benefit from a favorable monetary policy environment, with expectations of valuation recovery [3][10][19] - Technology Sector: While the long-term bullish logic for technology stocks remains intact, there is a cautionary note regarding potential short-term volatility and the need for performance verification during the earnings season [4][9][18] Investment Strategy - The report recommends investors to strategically increase positions in cyclical, high-dividend, or undervalued consumer stocks, while being cautious with high-valuation technology stocks that may face correction pressures [4][18] - It suggests a focus on stocks with strong earnings certainty during the upcoming earnings season, particularly in the technology sector [4][18] Economic Indicators - The report notes that the recent CPI data indicates a cooling inflation environment, which may lead to increased expectations for interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, potentially benefiting gold prices and traditional safe-haven assets [11][12] - The report also mentions the ongoing development of new industries such as commercial aerospace and low-altitude economy, which are expected to grow significantly in the coming years [13][15]