GOLDEN SUN SECURITIES·2025-03-18 00:17Investment Rating - The report initiates coverage with a "Buy" rating for Xintian Green Energy [3] Core Views - Xintian Green Energy is positioned as a leading clean energy company in North China, focusing on wind and natural gas sectors, with a strong operational base in Hebei and plans for national expansion [1][13] - The company has demonstrated stable profitability from its existing business, with expectations for growth driven by LNG production and increased wind power capacity [1][21] Summary by Sections 1. Business Overview - Xintian Green Energy was established in February 2010 and is controlled by the Hebei State-owned Assets Supervision and Administration Commission, with listings on both the Hong Kong and Shanghai stock exchanges [1][14] - The company has a total installed capacity of 6,293.75 MW in wind power and 126.12 MW in solar power as of the end of 2023, with a focus on leveraging its strong wind resources [13][19] 2. Financial Performance - Revenue has grown from 12.51 billion yuan in 2020 to 20.28 billion yuan in 2023, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 17.47% [16] - For the first half of 2024, revenue reached 12.14 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 20.8% [16] 3. Wind Power and Natural Gas Expansion - The company is actively developing large-scale wind power projects in arid and desert areas, with a focus on both onshore and offshore wind projects [2] - The natural gas segment is expanding rapidly, with a comprehensive supply chain and a significant increase in LNG sales volume expected from ongoing projects [2][3] 4. Profitability and Growth Forecast - The report forecasts revenues of 22.69 billion yuan, 25.40 billion yuan, and 27.32 billion yuan for 2024, 2025, and 2026, respectively, with corresponding net profits of 2.33 billion yuan, 2.96 billion yuan, and 3.41 billion yuan [3][4] - The earnings per share (EPS) are projected to be 0.56 yuan, 0.70 yuan, and 0.81 yuan for the same years, indicating a favorable valuation compared to peers [3][4] 5. Cash Flow and Capital Expenditure - Operating cash flow has remained stable, with 4.85 billion yuan reported in 2023, and capital expenditures have decreased significantly as the company focuses on high-return projects [24][27] - The company has maintained a consistent dividend payout, with a dividend payout ratio increasing from 32.37% in 2021 to 40.77% in 2023 [27] 6. Market Position and Competitive Advantage - Xintian Green Energy benefits from a high proportion of green electricity consumption in Hebei, with favorable policies supporting renewable energy [30] - The company’s wind power utilization hours have consistently exceeded 2,400 hours, outperforming the national average, which underscores its operational efficiency [35]