农林牧渔行业报告:生猪供需博弈僵持,白鸡价格反弹
China Post Securities·2025-03-18 01:21

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" and is maintained [1] Core Viewpoints - The agricultural sector has shown a significant rebound, with the agricultural index rising by 2.84%, ranking 8th among 31 primary industries [4][12] - The pig market is experiencing a narrow fluctuation, with the average price of pigs at 14.52 CNY/kg, remaining stable compared to the previous week [5][18] - The white chicken market is seeing a price rebound, with the price of chicken seedlings increasing to 3.0 CNY per chick, and the price of meat chickens rising to 3.62 CNY per jin, an increase of 8.7% [6][28] Summary by Sections Market Performance - The agricultural sector index has increased by 2.84%, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 indices, which rose by 1.59% and 1.39% respectively [12] - The agricultural sub-sectors, particularly meat chicken and pig farming, have rebounded significantly, with increases of 4.83% and 2.93% respectively [14][16] Livestock Industry Chain Tracking Pigs - The pig price is in a narrow fluctuation, with the average price at 14.52 CNY/kg, and the market is under supply pressure due to increased outflow from breeding groups [5][18] - The profitability for self-bred pigs is around 35 CNY per head, while purchasing piglets incurs a loss of 35 CNY per head [19] - The breeding stock is showing slight fluctuations, with a cautious increase in production capacity expected [20][21] White Chickens - The price of white feather chicken seedlings has risen to 3.0 CNY per chick, with an average profit of 0.2 CNY per chick [6][28] - The price of meat chickens has increased to 3.62 CNY per jin, driven by supply shortages and low prices [6][28] - The supply chain remains robust, with a significant increase in the number of breeding stocks, indicating a stable supply for 2025 [29] Planting Industry Chain Tracking - Sugar prices have risen to 6130 CNY/ton, an increase of 90 CNY/ton [32] - Soybean prices have shown a slight decline, with the price at 3624 CNY/ton, down by 1.8% [34] - Corn prices have slightly increased to 2198 CNY/ton, up by 32 CNY/ton [34]