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2025年两会建筑行业政策解读:基建端建筑需求有望修复,“防风险”助力建筑企业流动性改善
Lian He Zi Xin·2025-03-18 02:38

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the construction industry, suggesting that infrastructure demand is expected to recover due to more proactive fiscal policies and improved liquidity for construction companies [1][4][8]. Core Insights - The government work report for 2025 emphasizes a stable yet progressive approach, with several positive signals for the construction industry, including increased fiscal support and measures to mitigate local government debt risks [3][4][8]. - The report highlights that the narrow infrastructure demand is likely to benefit from more aggressive fiscal policies, which will help improve the liquidity of construction enterprises [1][4]. - The construction sector is expected to see a recovery in demand as fiscal spending intensifies, particularly with the increase in special local government bonds aimed at infrastructure investment [5][8]. Summary by Sections Fiscal Policy - The 2025 government work report sets a GDP growth target of around 5% and proposes a deficit rate of approximately 4%, which is an increase of 1 percentage point from the previous year. The issuance of long-term special bonds is planned at 1.3 trillion yuan, an increase of 300 billion yuan from last year [4][9]. - The report also mentions that local government special bonds will amount to 4.4 trillion yuan, up by 500 billion yuan, primarily for investment construction and addressing overdue payments to enterprises [4][9]. Infrastructure Investment - The report indicates that infrastructure investment in China, excluding electricity, saw a year-on-year growth rate of 4.4% in 2024, which is a decline of 1.5 percentage points compared to 2023. This slowdown is attributed to reduced investments in roads, pipelines, and public facilities led by local governments [5][6]. - The increased fiscal spending, especially from the central government, is expected to provide strong support for the recovery of narrow infrastructure investment growth [5][6]. Real Estate Sector - The report notes that while the real estate sector's construction demand is expected to stabilize, it may take time for significant improvements. Policies aimed at preventing debt defaults among real estate companies and ensuring housing delivery are anticipated to enhance cash flow for construction firms [7][8]. - The government emphasizes the need to adapt to high-quality housing demands and improve standards for construction, which will raise expectations for future products in the industry [7][8]. International Market Opportunities - The report highlights that the overseas engineering contracting market is expected to expand further with the deepening of the "Belt and Road" initiative. In 2024, China's completed overseas contracting projects are projected to reach 166 billion USD, a 3.1% increase from the previous year [8][9]. - The construction sector is likely to continue exploring opportunities along the "Belt and Road" routes to find new growth avenues amid domestic industry slowdowns [8].