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有色金属行业周报:刚果(金)矿业生产扰动率抬升,推高全球铜、钴、锡等金属价格
兴业证券·2025-03-18 02:56

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is maintained as "Recommended" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that the production disruption in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) has led to an increase in global prices for copper, cobalt, and tin [2] - The report notes that the prices of precious metals, particularly gold, have risen above 3,000perounceduetoinflationconcernsandtariffuncertainties[3]Thealuminummarketisexperiencingstrongdemandasinventorycontinuestodeplete,supportinghighaluminumprices[4]Thelithiummarketisfacingdownwardpressureonprices,withaslightdecreaseincarbonlithiumpricesobserved[5]SummarybySections1.MarketPerformanceReviewThenonferrousmetalsectorincreasedby3.563,000 per ounce due to inflation concerns and tariff uncertainties [3] - The aluminum market is experiencing strong demand as inventory continues to deplete, supporting high aluminum prices [4] - The lithium market is facing downward pressure on prices, with a slight decrease in carbon lithium prices observed [5] Summary by Sections 1. Market Performance Review - The non-ferrous metal sector increased by 3.56%, outperforming the Shanghai Composite Index by 2.17 percentage points [17] 2. Industrial Metal Fundamentals Tracking Aluminum - Aluminum prices are supported by seasonal demand and inventory depletion, with current profits around 2,800 RMB/ton [4] Copper - Copper prices continue to rise, with domestic copper inventories decreasing and demand remaining stable [4][21] Tin - The tin price surged due to production halts in the DRC caused by conflict [2][21] 3. Precious Metal Fundamentals Tracking Gold - Gold prices have risen above 3,000 per ounce, driven by inflation and tariff uncertainties [3] Macro Economic Data Tracking - The report tracks key economic indicators, including CPI and employment data, which influence market expectations [3] 4. Energy Metals and Rare Earth Fundamentals Tracking Lithium - The average price of lithium carbonate has decreased slightly, with production expected to decline due to cost pressures [5] Cobalt and Nickel - The report anticipates an increase in nickel pig iron operating rates in March [12] 5. Industry Weekly Dynamics - The report provides insights into weekly changes in metal prices and inventory levels, indicating overall market trends [21][22]