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2025年1-2月经济数据点评:开年经济稳中向好,新产业表现亮眼
西南证券·2025-03-18 04:56

Economic Overview - In January-February 2025, China's industrial added value grew by 5.9% year-on-year, slightly higher than the 2024 annual growth rate by 0.1 percentage points, but down 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[2] - High-tech manufacturing saw a year-on-year growth of 9.1%, exceeding the December 2024 growth rate by 1.2 percentage points, driven by policy support and advancements in AI technology[2] Real Estate Market - Real estate development investment fell by 9.8% year-on-year, but the decline narrowed by 3.5 percentage points compared to December 2024[3] - The sales area and sales revenue of commercial housing decreased by 5.1% and 2.6% year-on-year, respectively, with the decline in sales area expanding by 4.6 percentage points[3] Infrastructure Investment - Fixed asset investment (excluding rural households) increased by 4.1% year-on-year, surpassing market expectations and up 0.9 percentage points from the 2024 annual growth rate[2] - Narrowly defined infrastructure investment grew by 5.6% year-on-year, while broadly defined infrastructure investment rose by 9.95%, an increase of approximately 2.53 percentage points from December 2024[2] Manufacturing Investment - Manufacturing investment increased by 9.0% year-on-year, up 0.65 percentage points from December 2024, and outpacing the national fixed asset investment growth by 4.9 percentage points[4] - High-tech industry investment rose by 9.7% year-on-year, higher than the 8% growth rate in 2024, with significant increases in sectors like information services and aerospace[4] Consumer Spending - Retail sales of consumer goods grew by 4% year-on-year, matching market expectations and up 0.3 percentage points from December 2024[5] - Categories such as communication equipment and sports goods saw substantial growth, with communication equipment sales increasing by 26.2% year-on-year, largely due to new subsidy policies[5]