宏观策略周报：全球关税升级风险加大，全球风险偏好整体降温

Domestic Economic Outlook - China's February PMI data exceeded expectations, indicating a strong economic start and continued recovery[3] - Despite the short-term impact of increased US tariffs on Chinese exports, government spending has significantly increased during the Two Sessions, and the central bank has indicated potential interest rate cuts, supporting a bullish outlook for the stock market[3] - The weakening US dollar has alleviated pressure on the RMB exchange rate, enhancing domestic demand and market policy support, leading to an overall increase in domestic risk appetite[3] International Economic Risks - The US has imposed a 25% tariff on global steel and aluminum products, prompting retaliatory measures from Canada and the EU, escalating global trade tensions[3] - Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs have downgraded US GDP growth forecasts for 2025 from 1.9% to 1.5% and from 2.2% to 1.7%, respectively, indicating a deteriorating economic outlook[4] - US February CPI slowed to 2.8% year-on-year, with core CPI at 3.1%, both below market expectations, increasing bets on at least two interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve this year[5] Market Strategy Recommendations - Maintain a cautious bullish stance on A-share index futures (IH/IF/IC/IM) in the short term; commodities should be observed cautiously, and government bonds should also be viewed with caution[3] - The ranking of asset classes is: stock indices > commodities > government bonds[3] - In commodities, precious metals are prioritized, followed by non-ferrous metals, black metals, and energy[3] Risk Factors - Potential for unexpected tightening of Federal Reserve monetary policy[3] - Geopolitical risks and intensifying US-China tensions pose significant threats to market stability[3]