定价权在谁手（1）：庶民的盛宴和春季躁动下半场

Group 1 - The current A-share market is characterized by a strong influence of individual investors, with the pricing power in their hands, indicating a retail-driven market environment [5][29]. - Since September 24, 2024, the correlation between the net inflow of margin trading and the performance of the entire A-share index has reached 79.5%, significantly higher than the historical average of 65%, highlighting the increasing impact of margin trading on market dynamics [5][22]. - The personal investor sentiment indicator is currently at a high level, suggesting that individual investors are likely to respond positively to potential good news, allowing for a more aggressive investment stance in the A-share market [5][33]. Group 2 - The report draws parallels between the current market dynamics and previous retail-driven market phases, particularly noting similarities with the market behavior observed in October 2010 and the spring rally of 2011 [34][40]. - The report emphasizes that the current market is experiencing a structural bull market, particularly in small-cap and technology sectors, driven by retail investor enthusiasm and policy expectations [5][20]. - The focus on expanding domestic demand is highlighted as a core objective for the year, with consumer sectors likely to receive continuous policy support, while traditional consumption upgrades may face challenges [7][29]. Group 3 - The report suggests that the market's performance will be tested during the earnings season, with the overall pressure on A-share earnings indicated by the PPI not recovering in early 2025 [7]. - The report indicates that the market is likely to see a rotation from growth styles to sectors with stronger policy stimulus expectations, particularly in consumer goods such as snacks, soft drinks, and beauty products [7][29]. - The historical analysis of previous market phases shows that after periods of heightened trading activity, the market typically returns to a consolidation phase, suggesting potential volatility ahead [34][38].