Orient Securities·2025-03-18 07:45Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Positive (Maintain)" [5] Core Viewpoints - The report anticipates continued growth in the penetration rate of down products, driven by consumer demand for quality-price ratio products and a better quality of life [4][43] - The report highlights the strong growth potential of the down products sector, particularly in the downstream apparel and home textile industries, recommending several leading companies for investment [4][43] Summary by Sections Industry Overview - The down products sector is experiencing significant growth, with increasing market penetration and high price levels compared to spring and summer products [8] - The domestic down apparel production reached approximately 120 million pieces in 2022, with the company supplying about 12% of the theoretical market demand [7][8] Company Analysis - The company, Guqi Down Material, is a leading manufacturer of down products, focusing on high-end markets with a strong market share and growth potential [7][8] - The company's revenue and net profit are projected to grow at a CAGR of 18% and 30% respectively from 2021 to 2024 [10] Financial Performance - The company's revenue for 2023 is expected to be 830 million, with a year-on-year growth of 24% [12] - The gross profit margin has shown fluctuations, primarily influenced by market price changes and product quality [10] Supply Chain Analysis - The upstream supply of down materials is stable due to China's dominance in duck and goose farming, ensuring a steady supply of raw materials [25][28] - The industry is characterized by high concentration, with many small and low-standard processing plants being phased out due to increased environmental regulations [29] Market Potential - The down apparel market in China has significant growth potential, with a current penetration rate of less than 10%, much lower than in Europe and Japan [33][37] - The average selling price of down jackets has increased from 489 yuan in 2013 to 656 yuan in 2020, indicating a trend of rising consumer spending [37][38] Investment Recommendations - The report recommends buying shares in Semir Apparel (002563), Hailan Home (600398), Bosideng (03998), and others, indicating strong growth prospects in the down products segment [4][43]