Investment Rating - The report gives a "Buy" rating for the company, YouRan Agriculture [5]. Core Views - The report highlights that the raw milk industry is experiencing a cyclical downturn, but a reversal is expected soon due to supply adjustments and increasing demand [4][5]. - YouRan Agriculture is positioned as the leading raw milk supplier in China, benefiting from economies of scale and strong customer relationships, particularly with Yili Group [4][5]. Summary by Sections 1. Characteristics of the Raw Milk Industry - The raw milk industry is characterized by strong cyclicality, typically experiencing price fluctuations every five years, influenced by rigid supply and steadily increasing demand [3]. - Supply rigidity is due to the biological asset characteristics of dairy cows, which require at least 24 months from breeding to milk production, and the geographical concentration of production [3][4]. - High capital barriers exist for new entrants, with significant investment required to establish dairy farms, and strong quality requirements from large dairy enterprises [3][4]. 2. YouRan Agriculture Overview - YouRan Agriculture is the largest raw milk supplier in China, managing nearly 600,000 dairy cows across 96 farms, accounting for 9.7% of the national raw milk output [4]. - The company has a comprehensive supply chain covering breeding, feed, and milk production, achieving a milk yield of 12.6 tons per cow [4]. - In 2023, YouRan sold 12.45 billion yuan worth of raw milk to Yili Group, with a sales price approximately 20% higher than the market average [4]. 3. Raw Milk Price Cycle Characteristics - The current raw milk price cycle has been declining for 42 months since its peak in mid-2021, leading to significant capacity reduction in the industry [4]. - The report anticipates that by the second half of 2025, the raw milk market will reach a supply-demand balance, potentially reversing the price cycle [4][5]. 4. YouRan Agriculture's Profit Forecast and Valuation - The forecast for YouRan's revenue from 2024 to 2026 is 2.086 billion, 2.284 billion, and 2.626 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits expected to turn positive by 2025 [5]. - The report estimates that the company's earnings per share (EPS) will improve from -0.1 yuan in 2024 to 0.6 yuan in 2026, reflecting the anticipated recovery in raw milk prices [5].
优然牧业：深度研究报告：原奶周期反转在即，牧业龙头冬去春来-20250318