供需寻求再平衡，关注出口和消费预期差

Economic Overview - Economic data for January-February indicates a rebalancing of supply and demand, with demand recovering and production marginally declining, leading to a narrowing supply-demand gap[11] - The weighted year-on-year growth rate of investment, retail, and exports is 4.35%, up 0.61 percentage points from December 2024, primarily driven by investment and retail recovery[11] Consumer Trends - Retail sales growth for January-February is 4%, slightly below the consensus expectation of 4.5% and lower than the 5.5% growth from the previous year[12] - The year-on-year growth rate of retail sales above designated size improved to 4.3%, while below designated size retail sales growth slowed to 3.82%[15] - Consumption of automobiles, home appliances, and audio-visual equipment showed marginal declines, while communication equipment and furniture consumption saw marginal increases[18] Real Estate Investment - Real estate investment showed a marginal improvement with a cumulative year-on-year decline of 9.8%, recovering 0.8 percentage points from the previous value[23] - The total land transaction price in 100 major cities reached 300.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 46.39%[26] Policy Initiatives - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" was issued, outlining 30 key tasks to stimulate consumption, focusing on new consumption scenarios and fiscal support for child-rearing[38] - The central government allocated 10.34 trillion yuan for transfer payments, with an expected 70% used to boost consumption, potentially increasing consumption growth by approximately 0.9 percentage points[48] Export Outlook - There is potential for better-than-expected export growth, particularly with the recovery of the EU economy and possible adjustments in US-China relations[49] - Historical data suggests that China's exports to the EU and ASEAN may offset declines in exports to the US, as seen in 2019[50]