煤炭行业月报：进口增速放缓，需求有望改善

Investment Rating - The coal industry is rated as "Outperform the Market" [2] Core Viewpoints - The report indicates that coal supply has increased, with domestic raw coal production in February reaching 765 million tons, a year-on-year growth of 7.7%, and coal imports totaling 76.12 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 2.1% [5][9] - Demand for coal is under pressure, with total electricity generation in January-February declining by 1.3% year-on-year, and thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - The report anticipates a potential improvement in demand due to macroeconomic expectations and government policies aimed at boosting domestic demand [5][11] Summary by Sections Supply Side - In January-February, domestic raw coal production increased by 7.7% year-on-year, totaling 765 million tons, while coal imports rose by 2.1% to 76.12 million tons [5][9] - The total coal supply for January-February was 840 million tons, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 7.91% [5][9] Demand Side - Total electricity generation decreased by 1.3% year-on-year, with thermal power generation down by 5.8% [11][12] - Clean energy sources showed growth, with hydropower increasing by 4.5%, solar power by 27.4%, and wind power by 10.4% [12][14] Inventory and Prices - National coal inventory increased by 24.62% year-on-year, reaching 81 million tons, while key power plants' coal inventory grew by 12.80% [19][21] - Coal prices have seen significant declines, with Qinhuangdao port's thermal coal price down by 20.83% year-on-year [24][29] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three areas: 1. Dual-focus elasticity stocks such as Lu'an Huanneng and Pingmei Shenma [5] 2. High-quality dividend stocks like Shaanxi Coal and China Coal Energy [5] 3. Long-term growth stocks including Guanghui Energy and New Hope Energy [5]