总量双周报：指数有望强势突破，消费迎来重要拐点

Macro - The government has set a GDP target of 5% for 2025, with a fiscal deficit rate of 4% and a CPI target of 2%, all aligning with market expectations [3][15][23] - The fiscal policy remains focused on increasing efforts, with a significant rise in the fiscal deficit rate by 1 percentage point, and an increase in the issuance of special bonds to maintain banking system stability [3][16] - The emphasis on consumption has notably increased, with the term "consumption" appearing 28 times in the government work report, up from 16 times the previous year [3][17] A-Share Strategy - The index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer stocks taking the lead over technology stocks, driven by policy catalysts [4][20] - The "Special Action Plan to Boost Consumption" outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas, indicating a comprehensive approach to stimulate consumption [4][20] - The market is shifting towards value, with a focus on consumer and cyclical stocks, while maintaining attention on the technology sector as a long-term investment direction [4][20][21] Bond Market - The government work report's economic targets are in line with market expectations, with local special bond issuance set at 4.4 trillion yuan, an increase of 500 billion yuan from 2024 [9][23] - The bond market is expected to remain in a weak oscillation, with short-term interest rates showing investment value while long-term rates are anticipated to fluctuate within a range [9][25] Banking Sector - The banking sector is projected to maintain stable asset growth under positive fiscal policies, with net interest margin pressure being manageable [10][28] - The market is seeing a shift towards growth, cycle, consumption, and finance, with banks offering low valuations and stable high dividend attributes [10][27] Real Estate - The real estate market is showing signs of stabilization, with new and second-hand home transactions recovering, particularly in second-hand homes [11][30] - Various policy tools are expected to work together to gradually stabilize the real estate market, with a focus on leading companies with core city resources [11][30] Non-Banking Financials - The securities market remains active, with significant trading volumes and a positive outlook for technology-driven growth in the sector [12][32] - The insurance sector is expected to face slower growth in 2025 compared to 2024, but the recovery of the equity market may alleviate some pressures [13][33]