东兴证券：东兴晨报-20250318

Core Insights - The report emphasizes that the index is expected to break through strongly, with consumer sectors becoming the core drivers of growth, replacing the previous focus on technology sectors [1][2] - The introduction of the "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" marks a significant turning point for consumer recovery, driven primarily by policy rather than economic recovery [2][7] - The report suggests that the consumer sector is currently in a mid-term bottoming phase, with substantial investment opportunities as policies begin to take effect [2][19] Policy and Economic Environment - The "Consumption Promotion Special Action Plan" outlines 30 key tasks across eight areas aimed at boosting domestic demand and enhancing consumer capacity [7][8] - The plan addresses critical issues affecting consumption, including income growth for urban and rural residents, service quality improvements, and the removal of restrictive measures [7][8] - The report indicates that the overall economic environment is gradually stabilizing, with expectations for consumer demand recovery improving due to recent policy announcements [8][19] Sector Performance and Investment Recommendations - The report highlights a shift towards consumer stocks, suggesting that even if short-term performance does not improve rapidly, market expectations can change, leading to valuation adjustments [2][19] - Specific recommendations include focusing on consumer sectors such as liquor and seasoning products, with companies like Kweichow Moutai and Yanjin Jvquan being highlighted for their potential [19] - The report also notes that the financial sector is expected to perform well during the annual report period, suggesting a balanced investment approach between consumer and cyclical stocks [2][19] Market Trends - The report indicates that the A-share market is experiencing a slow bull trend, with increased opportunities for rotation among sectors as the focus shifts back to fundamentals [13][14] - The consumer sector is expected to benefit from a gradual recovery in economic conditions, with the potential for significant upside as policies are implemented [19][20] - The report notes that the food and beverage sector is showing signs of recovery, with specific sub-sectors like white liquor and snacks being recommended for investment [19][20]