美国经济：零售显示消费放缓

Economic Overview - In February, U.S. retail sales showed a slight rebound with a month-on-month growth of 0.2%, but this was below market expectations of 0.6%[4] - January's retail growth was revised down from -0.9% to -1.2%[4] - The largest category, automotive and parts sales, fell by 0.4% in February after a significant drop of 3.7% in January[4] Consumer Spending Trends - Durable goods and food service sectors continued to show weakness, with food service sales experiencing the largest decline since 2023 at -1.5%[4] - E-commerce rebounded from -2.4% in January to 2.4% in February, although it remains below the average growth rate from the previous year[4] - Personal care retail sales increased from negative growth to 1.7%, while sports and apparel categories declined by 0.4% and 0.6%, respectively[4] Economic Risks and Federal Reserve Outlook - The uncertainty from Trump's tariffs, immigration policies, and government spending cuts is expected to reduce overall demand and suppress business investment and durable goods consumption, leading to economic downturn risks[4] - Inflation uncertainty is rising, with long-term inflation expectations reaching 3.9%, the highest since 1993[4] - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain interest rates in the upcoming meeting, with guidance suggesting two potential rate cuts later in the year[4]