招商蛇口：减值拖累业绩，融资优势明显，回购彰显信心-20250318

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [2] Core Views - The company's performance has been impacted by impairment losses, but it demonstrates significant financing advantages and share buybacks reflect confidence in its future [7] - The company holds high-quality land reserves in core cities, particularly in the Greater Bay Area, which is expected to benefit from industry optimization as the market stabilizes [7] Financial Data and Profit Forecast - Total revenue for 2024 is projected at 178.948 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.3% [5] - The net profit attributable to the parent company for 2024 is forecasted to be 4.039 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 36.1% due to impairment provisions [5] - The earnings per share for 2024 is estimated at 0.37 yuan, down 43.1% year-on-year [7] - The company's gross margin is expected to be 14.6% in 2024, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points year-on-year [7] - The company has a weighted average financing cost of 2.99%, which is a 48 basis points improvement year-on-year [7] Sales and Land Acquisition - The company achieved sales of 219.3 billion yuan in 2024, a decrease of 25.3% year-on-year, ranking fifth in the industry [7] - The land acquisition amount for 2024 is 48.6 billion yuan, with a land acquisition area of 2.25 million square meters [7] - The average sales price per square meter in 2024 is 23,000 yuan, down 2.4% year-on-year [7] Investment Analysis - The report suggests that the company's impairment losses have negatively affected its performance, but its financing advantages and focus on core cities position it well for future recovery [7] - The forecast for net profit attributable to the parent company for 2025 is adjusted to 4.230 billion yuan, down from previous estimates due to increased impairment losses [7] - The current price corresponds to a price-to-earnings ratio of 21 times for 2025, maintaining the "Buy" rating based on the quality of land reserves in key cities [7]