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月酝知风之地产行业:楼市热度回升,房企积极补仓
Ping An Securities·2025-03-18 13:30

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Outperform the Market" (maintained) [1] Core Views - As of March 14, the average daily transaction volume of new homes in 50 key cities increased by 9.7% month-on-month, indicating a gradual improvement in transactions as the supply of new homes increases [2] - The real estate market has shifted focus from "whether" to "how good" the properties are, with new building regulations expected to be implemented in 2024, leading to a concentration of high-quality residential properties entering the market in 2025 [2] - The current market may present strategic opportunities for product innovation and a cyclical bottom, with a focus on "good houses" that meet the four-dimensional upgrade goals of safety, comfort, green, and intelligence [2] - Historical burdens are lighter for certain companies, and those with optimized inventory structures and strong product capabilities are expected to benefit first [2] Policy - The government work report emphasizes the continuous push to stabilize the market and closely monitor the relaxation of policies in core cities [2][7] - The report outlines a focus on "four cancellations, four reductions, and two increases" in policies, with an emphasis on revitalizing the real estate market and improving the development model [10][11] Market Dynamics - The average price of residential properties in 100 cities was 16,711 yuan per square meter in February, marking a 0.11% month-on-month increase and a continuous recovery for 18 months [30] - The average premium rate for land transactions in 100 cities reached a new high of 10.4%, indicating strong demand for quality land [33] Company Recommendations - Companies recommended for investment include China Overseas Development, China Resources Land, Greentown China, and others with strong product capabilities and optimized inventory structures [2] - Companies with valuation recovery potential such as Vanke A and JinDi Group are also highlighted [2] Financial Insights - The real estate sector saw a 5.37% increase in February, outperforming the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 index, which rose by 1.91% [45] - The current price-to-earnings ratio (P/E) for the real estate sector is 36.49, placing it in the 94.9 percentile of the past five years [45]