美联储3月利率决议前瞻：衰退交易静待修正

Investment Rating - The report indicates a high probability of a pause in interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, with a 99% expectation for March [5][8]. Core Viewpoints - The Federal Reserve's upcoming meeting is crucial for understanding its outlook on interest rate cuts and economic projections, particularly in light of recent employment and consumption data showing signs of weakness [5][6]. - The report anticipates that the Fed may adjust its unemployment rate forecasts upward due to visible impacts from federal layoffs, which could significantly influence market sentiment [5][6]. - The unpredictable actions of former President Trump are expected to create volatility in the market, complicating the Fed's ability to maintain stability and independence [5][6]. - The report suggests that while market volatility may remain high, concerns over recession trading are likely to diminish, with potential upward movement in small-cap growth sectors compared to larger indices [5][6]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report highlights that the economy is not expected to face a recession imminently, despite a slowdown in strength and no significant inflationary pressures [5][6]. - The Fed's updated dot plot will be closely watched, with expectations of 2-3 rate cuts in 2025, although the actual number may vary [5][6]. Market Impact - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to have a significant impact on the market, particularly regarding the dot plot and economic data outlook [5][6]. - The report predicts a potential rise in 10-year U.S. Treasury yields, while short-term rates may have limited upward flexibility [5][6]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests that investors may consider gradually building positions in the market, particularly in small-cap growth sectors, despite expected volatility in major indices [5][6].