摩根士丹利：全球宏观策略-许下承诺，信守承诺

Investment Rating - The report suggests a defensive macro positioning, favoring long government bond duration in the US and the UK, and shorting the US dollar [11][39][40]. Core Insights - The report highlights significant uncertainty surrounding US trade policy, which has led to a decline in investor and CEO confidence, potentially impacting economic activity [12][15][31]. - The upcoming FOMC meeting is anticipated to either alleviate or heighten concerns regarding economic growth, with expectations for a steady message from the Fed [32][39]. - The report notes that the S&P 500 has lost 10% from its all-time high, reflecting heightened uncertainty in economic policy [12][31]. Summary by Sections US Rates Strategy - The report indicates that US Treasury yields are expected to decline further due to ongoing tariff threats and fiscal austerity, with no signs of overextension in the current market [44][46]. - A hawkish dot-plot from the Fed could extend the bull market in Treasuries, while the current market conditions suggest a defensive stance [44][46]. UK Rates Strategy - The report turns bullish on UK duration, suggesting an attractive opportunity for lower yields ahead of the Spring Forecast, despite recent weak trading [51][55]. G10 FX Strategy - The report maintains a bearish outlook on the USD, recommending shorts against EUR, GBP, and JPY, while targeting a resistance level of 1.12 for EUR/USD [58][61]. Japanese Investment Behavior - The report revisits the investment behavior of Japanese investors, who hold approximately US$48 trillion in financial assets, indicating potential impacts on asset class performance due to recent economic changes [53][56].