摩根士丹利：北京的刺激措施、科技领域发展与通胀回升

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly state an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Policymakers have initiated multi-channel funding initiatives to stimulate tech innovation, reviving investor confidence in the tech sector [2] - Significant increases in government spending on technology are projected, with on-budget tech spending expected to reach Rmb1.2 trillion, representing an 8.3% year-on-year growth compared to 4.4% for overall fiscal spending [3] - The report anticipates a nominal GDP growth of less than 4% in China starting from the second quarter of 2025, driven by slower exports and ongoing housing market weaknesses [36][37] Summary by Sections Technology Sector - A new tech board for direct debt financing by tech companies and private equity is being established [3] - The state startup fund could grow to Rmb1 trillion after incorporating private investments [3] - AI capital expenditure is projected to increase, with a notable rise in China's share of global patent applications related to humanoid technology since 2023 [4][6] Consumer Goods - The trade-in program is supporting goods consumption, with decent sales reported for home appliances and passenger cars in the first quarter of 2025 [9][10] - Online home appliance sales have shown fluctuations, with a significant year-on-year change noted [10] Government Financing - Local government financing has been strong year-to-date, with faster issuance of local government special bonds to support infrastructure capital expenditure [13] - A Rmb2 trillion local debt swap program has been front-loaded this year [15] Real Estate Market - The report indicates a need to monitor the sustainability of the recent rebound in the property market, as secondary housing sales have softened post-Lunar New Year [18] - A comprehensive housing buyback program of Rmb500 billion is planned, alongside measures to ease housing demand [42] Economic Indicators - Early signs of declining export orders and a larger-than-seasonal drop in new export orders have been observed [21] - Household credit demand remains weak, despite fiscal measures supporting credit growth [25][27]