3月FOMC预览：关注增长不确定性

Macroeconomic Overview - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a "watchful" stance during the March FOMC meeting, likely keeping interest rates unchanged due to unclear data trends and inflation concerns[1] - Recent economic data has shown a significant weakening in growth expectations, with the S&P 500 index dropping nearly 10%[2] - Non-farm payrolls in February increased by 151,000, below expectations, but the six-month average remains at 191,000, indicating some resilience in the labor market[2] Inflation and Economic Projections - February's core CPI fell to 0.23% month-on-month, but the implied core PCE for February is still high at 0.3%, suggesting potential inflationary pressures ahead[2] - Market institutions have downgraded the 2025 Q4 GDP growth forecast to 1.6%, down from the previous 2.1%[3] - The Fed is likely to adjust its growth forecasts downward while raising inflation predictions, reflecting increased uncertainty in economic conditions[3] Future Guidance and Policy Implications - Powell is expected to emphasize the uncertainty surrounding growth and provide open guidance on future interest rate paths, maintaining a forecast of two rate cuts in 2025[3] - The Fed may announce a pause in balance sheet reduction during the March meeting, with potential delays in stopping the reduction until the second half of 2025 due to debt ceiling concerns[3] - The probability of a recession remains low, but the risk of inflation rising could lead to a reassessment of monetary policy later in the year[4] Risks and Considerations - Key risks include unexpected inflation increases that could lead to a more hawkish Fed stance and potential escalation of tariffs under Trump's policies[5]