证券行业25Q1业绩前瞻：去年低基数下有望实现同比高增

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommendation" rating for the securities industry, expecting a high year-on-year growth in Q1 2025 [1][5][24]. Core Insights - The securities sector is projected to achieve a 43% increase in main revenue and a 41% increase in net profit attributable to shareholders in Q1 2025, driven by a low base from the previous year [1][5]. - The brokerage business is expected to see a significant increase in net income by 75% year-on-year, while investment banking is projected to decline by 5% [1][2]. - The report highlights a tightening in the IPO market, with only 5 companies accepted for IPO projects in Q1 2025, a significant drop from 42 in Q4 2024 [2]. - Asset management business is under pressure due to ongoing reforms, with public fund net values increasing but private fund sizes showing a slight decline [3]. - The self-operated business is experiencing fluctuations, with the stock market showing a 6.4% increase during the reporting period [3][4]. Summary by Sections Brokerage Business - The average daily trading volume in A-shares is projected at 15,566 billion CNY, reflecting a 74% year-on-year increase, with total quarterly trading volume expected to reach 89 trillion CNY [1]. Investment Banking - The report indicates a 42% year-on-year decrease in IPO financing scale, with a total of 111 billion CNY expected for Q1 2025, while refinancing is expected to increase by 58% year-on-year [2]. Asset Management - Public fund net values reached 7.38 trillion CNY, up 17.2% from Q1 2024, while private asset management size is projected at 6.1 trillion CNY, reflecting a 3% increase year-on-year [3]. Self-Operated Business - The stock market has shown a 6.4% increase, while the bond market has seen a rise in the 10-year treasury yield by 22.4 basis points [3]. Credit Business - The margin trading balance reached 19,297 billion CNY, with a projected 104% year-on-year increase in financing buy-ins for Q1 2025 [4]. Company Performance and Valuation - Key companies such as GF Securities, CITIC Securities, and Huatai Securities are rated as "Recommended," with projected PE ratios for 2025 at 13.30, 17.80, and 11.94 respectively [9].