德邦证券-美联储3月利率决议前瞻：衰退交易静待修正

Investment Rating - The report indicates a neutral investment rating for the industry, suggesting that the expected overall return is within -10% to +10% of the benchmark index [19]. Core Insights - The Federal Reserve is expected to maintain the current interest rate during the March meeting, with a 99% probability of pausing rate cuts, reflecting a cautious economic outlook [6][11]. - The report highlights that the labor market is showing signs of weakness, with potential adjustments in unemployment rates due to increasing layoffs, which could impact economic growth and inflation expectations [4][6]. - The focus of the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting will be on the interest rate outlook and economic projections, particularly the dot plot indicating potential rate cuts later in the year [6][7]. Summary by Sections Economic Outlook - The report notes that while the U.S. economy remains resilient, there are signs of softening in certain data points, which could lead to a downturn in economic performance and affect stock market earnings [6][7]. - The potential for 2-3 rate cuts in 2025 is highlighted, but the exact timing and frequency remain uncertain [6][7]. Market Impact - The report anticipates that market volatility will remain high due to unpredictable political actions and macroeconomic uncertainties, making it difficult for the Federal Reserve to stabilize market expectations [7][8]. - It is suggested that small-cap growth sectors may have greater upward potential compared to larger indices like the Dow and Nasdaq [5]. Interest Rate Projections - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a strong likelihood of maintaining the current interest rate, with expectations for future rate cuts becoming more pronounced as the year progresses [11][12]. - The report emphasizes that the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield may rise in the near term, reflecting broader market adjustments [7].