国信证券：晨会纪要-20250319

Macro and Strategy - The bond market has experienced multiple bull and bear cycles since 2002, with six major bear markets and seven bull markets identified based on interest rate changes exceeding 70 basis points [6] - Key characteristics of the "bull to bear" transition include fundamental and policy turning points occurring before the start of major bear markets, with fundamental turning points being closer to the transition period [6] - Historical data shows that most bear markets are associated with CPI growth exceeding 3.0%, and improvements in economic fundamentals often weaken the impact of policy changes on the bond market [6] Industry and Company Public Utilities and Environmental Protection - The public utilities index rose by 2.19% and the environmental index increased by 2.53%, indicating strong performance in these sectors [10] - The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, along with other departments, has issued guidelines to promote high-quality development in the environmental equipment manufacturing industry, aiming for significant market share increases by 2027 [11] - Investment strategies include recommending major thermal power companies and leading renewable energy firms due to supportive government policies and stable profitability expectations [12] Metal Industry - Gold prices have shown a strong upward trend, with COMEX gold prices increasing by approximately 13.42% year-to-date, driven by geopolitical risks and a weakening dollar [14] - Central banks have consistently purchased over 1,000 tons of gold annually, indicating a sustained interest in gold as a strategic asset amid economic uncertainties [15] - The production of gold by major mining companies is expected to increase significantly, with projected production reaching 108.30 tons in 2025, reflecting a robust growth outlook [16] Light Industry Manufacturing - Recent developments in the pulp industry indicate potential price increases due to supply constraints and rising costs, with significant price hikes observed in various pulp grades [18] - The online market for trendy toys has experienced substantial growth, with sales in the anime and building block sectors increasing by 39.8% and 15.9% respectively in early 2025 [19] - Investment recommendations focus on leading home furnishing companies and paper packaging firms, anticipating recovery in consumer demand and price increases [20] BOSS Zhipin (BZ.O) - The company reported a 15% year-on-year revenue increase for Q4 2024, with a notable rise in paid enterprise users and improvements in average revenue per user (ARPU) [21][22] - The company is actively expanding its AI capabilities, which are expected to enhance recruitment efficiency and user experience [28][29] - Despite a slight downward adjustment in profit forecasts for 2025, the long-term growth outlook remains positive due to improving market conditions and AI product developments [29] Shanjin International (000975.SZ) - The company achieved a revenue of 135.85 billion yuan in 2024, reflecting a 67.60% year-on-year increase, with a strong focus on cost management leading to a gross margin of 73.54% [24][25] - Future growth is supported by the acquisition of strategic mining assets, which are expected to enhance production capacity significantly [26]