Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (9868 HK), with a target price of HKD 134.69, indicating a potential upside of 41.6% from the current price of HKD 95.10 [1][3][14]. Core Insights - The automotive gross margin exceeded expectations, and the report is optimistic about the upcoming product cycle in 2025. Although revenue was slightly below expectations, the automotive gross margin was 10.0%, surpassing market expectations of 9-9.5% due to scale effects and efficient cost control [2][8]. - Xiaopeng Motors is expected to deliver 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, with March sales projected to be between 31,000 and 33,000 units, reflecting a slight month-on-month increase [2][8]. - The company is focusing on a diversified product strategy rather than relying on a single bestseller, with new models like the G6 and G9 expected to improve sales and gross margins [8]. Financial Overview - For the fiscal year 2023, total revenue was RMB 30,676 million, with a year-on-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenue for 2024 is RMB 40,866 million, representing a growth of 33.2% [7][16]. - The net loss for 2023 was RMB 10,376 million, which is expected to narrow to RMB 5,790 million in 2024 and further to RMB 613 million in 2025 [7][16]. - The company anticipates a significant increase in revenue to RMB 86,172 million by 2025, with a projected gross profit of RMB 11,812 million [7][16]. Market Performance - Xiaopeng Motors' stock has shown a year-to-date increase of 103.86%, with a 52-week high of HKD 97.45 and a low of HKD 26.05 [5][14]. - The report highlights that the stock price pullback presents a good buying opportunity, reinforcing the "Buy" rating based on strong sales growth and improved gross margins [8][14].
小鹏汽车-W：汽车毛利率超预期，看好今年的大产品周期，维持买入-20250319