2025 年 04 月 06 日 公司研究 评级：买入(维持) 研究所： 证券分析师： 戴畅 S0350523120004 daic@ghzq.com.cn [Table_Title] 财务向好，新车周期+智驾加速+海外拓展三箭齐发 事件: 小鹏汽车 2025 年 4 月 1 日公布 2025 年 3 月销量：2025 年 3 月小鹏汽 车共交付 33,205 辆，同比+268%；2025Q1 累计交付 94,008 辆，同比 +331%。 投资要点: 最近一年走势 | 相对恒生指数表现 | | | | 2025/04/03 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 表现 | 1M | 3M | 12M | | | 小鹏汽车-W | 0.2% | 82.4% | | 183.7% | | 恒生指数 | -0.7% | 15.6% | 36.6% | | | 市场数据 | | | | 2025/04/03 | | 当前价格（港元） | | | 81.55 | | | 52 周价格区间（港元） | | | | 25.50-106.00 | | 总市值（百万港元） | | | | 15 ...

Core Viewpoint - Xiaopeng Motors' Q4 2024 financial results showed a decline in vehicle sales price, leading to lower-than-expected revenue, but the gross margin improved significantly due to cost reduction capabilities [1][5][12]. Financial Performance - Vehicle sales price decreased by nearly 30,000 yuan, resulting in a sales revenue of 14.67 billion yuan, slightly below the market expectation of 15.3 billion yuan [1][13][24]. - The automotive gross margin reached 10%, exceeding the market expectation of 9.4%, reflecting significant improvements in cost management [1][5][12]. Sales Guidance - The Q1 2025 sales guidance is set at 91,000 to 93,000 vehicles, implying a flat month-over-month increase in March, raising concerns about the sustainability of sales momentum for popular models P7+ and M03 [2][5][19]. - The implied vehicle price for Q1 2025 is projected to drop to 150,000 yuan, continuing the downward trend [2][20][22]. Cost Management - The single vehicle cost decreased to 144,000 yuan, contributing to the improved gross margin despite lower sales prices [18][26]. - The company achieved a significant reduction in costs through enhanced supply chain management and strategic pricing adjustments [6][17][32]. Operating Expenses - Selling and administrative expenses increased significantly, reaching 2.28 billion yuan, primarily due to the transition to a dealership model and expansion of the sales network [30][34]. - R&D expenses were 1.63 billion yuan, slightly below market expectations, focusing on smart driving technology and new model development [31][32]. Market Positioning - Xiaopeng is focusing on high cost-performance products and user-oriented design, with a strong product cycle expected in 2025 [10][12][28]. - The company is positioned to lead in high-level smart driving technology, aiming to make it accessible in lower-priced models [10][12][28].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Outperform the Market" [6][4][27] Core Views - The company achieved a revenue of 16.1 billion yuan in Q4 2024, representing a year-on-year growth of 23% and a quarter-on-quarter growth of 59.4% [10][4] - The total sales volume for Q4 2024 was 91,500 units, a year-on-year increase of 52.1% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 96.8% [10][15] - The company is expected to deliver between 91,000 and 93,000 vehicles in Q1 2025, which would represent an annual increase of approximately 317% to 326.2% [15][4] Financial Performance - In Q4 2024, the gross margin was 14.4%, an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year, while the net margin was -8.3% [2][13] - The automotive business gross margin was 10.0%, up 5.9 percentage points year-on-year, primarily due to reduced vehicle costs [2][14] - The company forecasts revenues of 88.5 billion, 118.1 billion, and 130.3 billion yuan for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively, with expected net profits of -1.6 billion, 2.7 billion, and 4.7 billion yuan for the same years [4][5][27] Product Development - The 2025 models of the G6 and G9 were officially launched, featuring the Turing AI driving system [3][22] - The G6 is positioned as an all-around electric coupe SUV with a price range of 176,800 to 198,800 yuan, while the G9 is marketed as a flagship SUV priced between 248,800 and 278,800 yuan [22][25] Strategic Partnerships - The company entered a strategic partnership with Volkswagen Group (China) to develop a super-fast charging network, aiming to create the largest fast-charging network in China [18][21]

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company, indicating an expected relative performance exceeding the benchmark index by over 10% in the next 12-18 months [2][8]. Core Insights - The company achieved a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB in 2024, representing a 33% year-over-year increase, with Q4 revenue reaching 16.11 billion RMB, up 23% year-over-year and 59% quarter-over-quarter [8]. - The net loss for 2024 was narrowed to 5.79 billion RMB, with Q4 net loss at 1.33 billion RMB, showing improvement [8]. - Vehicle sales revenue in Q4 was 14.67 billion RMB, up 20% year-over-year and 67% quarter-over-quarter, driven by increased deliveries of 92,000 units, which is a 52% year-over-year and 97% quarter-over-quarter increase [8]. - The company is expected to continue strong performance in 2025, with a forecast of 91,000-93,000 vehicle deliveries in Q1, representing a year-over-year increase of 317%-326% [8]. Financial Data and Forecast - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 90.83 billion RMB, 130.71 billion RMB, and 152.66 billion RMB respectively, with net profits expected to be -1.2 billion RMB, 2.9 billion RMB, and 6.5 billion RMB [2][8]. - The gross profit margin (GPM) improved to 14.3% in 2024, up 12.8 percentage points year-over-year, with Q4 GPM at 14.4% [8]. - The company plans to expand its global presence, targeting over 60 countries by the end of 2025, with a goal for overseas sales to account for 50% of total sales in the next 10 years [8]. Valuation - The report uses the Price-to-Sales (PS) method for valuation, estimating PS ratios of 1.8, 1.3, and 1.1 for 2025, 2026, and 2027 respectively [8]. - The target price is set at 103.90 HKD, based on a PS of 2.0 times for 2025 [8].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Insights - The company reported a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. The revenue for Q4 2024 was 16.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.4% and 59.4%, respectively [3][4]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q4 2024 was 10.0%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, with a year-on-year growth range of 317.0% to 326.2% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - The automotive business revenue for Q4 2024 was 14.67 billion RMB, showing a year-on-year increase of 20.0% and a quarter-on-quarter increase of 66.8% [4]. - The total gross profit for Q4 2024 was 2.32 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%, reflecting an increase of 8.2 percentage points year-on-year [4]. - The company reported a non-GAAP net profit of -5.35 billion RMB for the year 2024, indicating a reduction in losses compared to the previous year [3]. Cost Management and Future Outlook - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.01 billion RMB, up 53.4% year-on-year, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5% [5]. - The company had cash and cash equivalents totaling 41.96 billion RMB as of Q4 2024, indicating a strong short-term liquidity position [5]. - The company anticipates significant revenue growth in the coming years, projecting revenues of 95.23 billion RMB in 2025, 148.09 billion RMB in 2026, and 162.90 billion RMB in 2027 [9].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [6][8]. Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 40.87 billion RMB for the year 2024, representing a year-on-year increase of 33.2%. The Q4 revenue was 16.11 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter growth of 23.4% and 59.4%, respectively [3][4]. - The automotive business gross margin for Q4 2024 was 10.0%, an increase of 6.0 percentage points year-on-year and 1.4 percentage points quarter-on-quarter [3][4]. - The company expects Q1 2025 automotive sales to be between 91,000 and 93,000 units, with a year-on-year growth range of 317.0% to 326.2% [5]. Revenue and Profitability - Q4 2024 automotive revenue was 14.67 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 20.0% and 66.8%, respectively, primarily due to increased delivery volumes [4]. - The overall gross profit for Q4 2024 was 2.32 billion RMB, with a gross margin of 14.4%, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 8.2 percentage points [4]. Cost Management - R&D expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.01 billion RMB, up 53.4% year-on-year and 22.9% quarter-on-quarter, with an R&D expense ratio of 12.5% [5]. - Selling and administrative expenses for Q4 2024 were 2.28 billion RMB, with year-on-year and quarter-on-quarter increases of 17.5% and 39.3%, respectively [5]. Future Outlook - The company anticipates a strong product cycle in 2025, with significant new model launches and an expansion into overseas markets, aiming for a sales target of over 20,000 units in 2024 and doubling that in 2025 [7][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 95.23 billion RMB, 148.09 billion RMB, and 162.90 billion RMB, respectively, with expected net profits of -1.40 billion RMB, 6.43 billion RMB, and 9.14 billion RMB [9].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025. The company has adjusted its revenue forecasts for 2025 and 2026, with 2025 revenue revised down to 82.01 billion yuan from 95.56 billion yuan, and 2026 revenue increased to 127.24 billion yuan from 122.06 billion yuan. A new revenue forecast for 2027 is set at 141.85 billion yuan. The Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025 and 2026 have been adjusted to -1.94 billion yuan and 533 million yuan, respectively, with a new forecast for 2027 at 2.23 billion yuan. The adjusted EPS for 2025-2027 is projected at -1.0, 0.3, and 1.1 yuan, respectively, corresponding to a price-to-sales ratio of 2.0, 1.3, and 1.2 times [5][6]. Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - For 2023, the company reported a revenue of 30.68 billion yuan, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2%. The projected revenues for 2024, 2025, 2026, and 2027 are 40.87 billion yuan, 82.01 billion yuan, 127.24 billion yuan, and 141.85 billion yuan, respectively, with corresponding year-over-year growth rates of 33.2%, 100.7%, 55.2%, and 11.5%. The net profit for 2023 was -9.44 billion yuan, with projections of -5.55 billion yuan for 2024, -1.94 billion yuan for 2025, 533 million yuan for 2026, and 2.23 billion yuan for 2027. The gross margin is expected to be 14.5% in 2025, while the net margin is projected to improve to 1.6% by 2027 [7].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" (maintained) [1] Core Views - The G7 model is expected to lead sales growth in Q2 2025, while brand enhancement will be crucial in H2 2025 [5][6] - Revenue forecasts for 2025 have been adjusted down from 95.56 billion to 82.01 billion, while 2026 revenue is revised up from 122.06 billion to 127.24 billion, with a new forecast for 2027 at 141.85 billion [5] - Non-GAAP net profit estimates for 2025-2026 have been improved, with 2025 projected at -1.94 billion and 2026 at 533 million, leading to adjusted EPS of -1.0 and 0.3 respectively [5] - The company is expected to maintain a double-digit automotive gross margin, driven by platformization and supply chain cost reductions [5] Financial Summary and Valuation Metrics - 2023A revenue was 30.68 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 14.2% - 2024A revenue is projected at 40.87 billion, with a year-over-year growth of 33.2% - 2025E revenue is expected to reach 82.01 billion, reflecting a significant year-over-year growth of 100.7% - The company is projected to achieve a gross margin of 14.5% in 2025, with a net profit margin of -2.4% [7]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company, Xiaopeng Motors (XPEV.US/9868.HK) [2][8]. Core Views - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors is raised to $27.2, representing a potential upside of 20%, while the target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W is set at HKD 106.2, indicating a potential upside of 19% [2][6]. - The company is entering a strong product cycle with robust delivery performance for models P7+ and M03, and better-than-expected orders for the new G6 and G9 models [8]. - Xiaopeng aims to double its sales by 2025, supported by new model launches and improved overall gross margins [8]. - The automotive gross margin is expected to improve, with a target of breakeven in Q4 2025 [8]. Financial Forecasts - Revenue projections for Xiaopeng Motors from 2023 to 2027 are as follows: - 2023: RMB 30,676 million - 2024: RMB 40,866 million - 2025E: RMB 86,568 million - 2026E: RMB 138,871 million - 2027E: RMB 190,622 million - The revenue growth rates are projected at 14% for 2023, 33% for 2024, 112% for 2025, 60% for 2026, and 37% for 2027 [3][9]. - Gross margin is expected to rise from 1.5% in 2023 to 19.0% by 2027 [3][9]. - Net profit (loss) projections indicate a loss of RMB 10,376 million in 2023, narrowing to a profit of RMB 13,964 million by 2027 [3][9]. Performance Review and Adjustments - In Q4 2024, Xiaopeng Motors reported revenue of RMB 16,105 million, a 23% year-on-year increase, with a gross profit of RMB 2,325 million, reflecting a 187% increase compared to the previous year [10]. - The automotive sales gross margin reached 10.0% in Q4 2024, with expectations for continued improvement in Q1 2025 [8][10]. - The company plans to enhance its AI capabilities and aims to introduce L3 level software capabilities in the second half of 2025 [8]. Valuation - The valuation is based on a sum-of-the-parts approach, applying a price-to-sales ratio of 1.9x for automotive sales and 5.5x for services and other revenues, leading to a target price of $27.2 for Xiaopeng Motors [8][16]. - The target price for Xiaopeng Motors-W is set at HKD 106.2, corresponding to a target price-to-sales ratio of 2.2x [8][16].

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Buy" and is maintained [5]. Core Views - The company has announced a conditional grant of 28.5068 million restricted stock units to its chairman and CEO, He Xiaopeng, as part of the 2025 equity incentive plan, which aims to align shareholder interests and reflects the company's confidence in its development [1][3]. - The company is expected to see accelerated sales growth due to its leading smart driving capabilities, a strong new vehicle cycle, channel transformation, and enhanced marketing systems [1][6]. - Financial performance is anticipated to improve continuously, driven by scale enhancement, cost reduction from platforms and technology, expansion of software revenue models, and ongoing growth in overseas markets [1][6]. Summary by Sections Event Description - On March 19, 2025, the company conditionally granted a total of 28.5068 million restricted stock units to He Xiaopeng as part of the 2025 equity incentive plan [3]. Stock Incentive Plan - The stock incentive plan includes three stages based on the average closing price over 30 trading days, with target prices set at HKD 250, 500, and 750, corresponding to market capitalizations of HKD 475.1 billion, 950.2 billion, and 1,425.3 billion respectively [6]. Sales and Revenue Projections - For Q1 2025, the expected delivery volume is between 91,000 and 93,000 units, representing a year-on-year growth of 317.0% to 326.2%, with projected revenue of HKD 15 billion to 15.7 billion, a year-on-year increase of 129.1% to 139.8% [6]. - The company has achieved record-breaking monthly deliveries, with the MONA M03 and P7+ models leading the new vehicle cycle [6]. International Expansion - The company is making significant strides in international markets, with plans for rapid deployment of its ultra-fast charging network in Southeast Asia and the launch of its first right-hand drive model in the UK [6].