梅花生物：黄原胶诉讼和解，海外市场拓展加速-20250319

Investment Rating - Investment Rating: Buy (Maintained) [1] Core Views - The company reported a revenue of 25.069 billion yuan in 2024, a year-on-year decrease of 9.69%, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 2.740 billion yuan, down 13.85% year-on-year [4][5] - The price of feed amino acids has increased, which helps to mitigate the downward pressure on the price of MSG [5] - The company reached a settlement in the xanthan gum lawsuit, which is expected to stabilize the competitive landscape of the industry [7][8] - The company is accelerating its overseas market expansion, which is expected to contribute to its platform development [10] Financial Performance Summary - In 2024, the company achieved revenue of 25.069 billion yuan, with a year-on-year decline of 9.69%. The operating cost was 20.037 billion yuan, down 10.14% year-on-year, and the basic earnings per share were 0.94 yuan, a decrease of 11.32% year-on-year [4][5] - The revenue from animal nutrition amino acids, human medical amino acids, and food flavor optimization products were 14.624 billion yuan, 0.476 billion yuan, and 7.945 billion yuan, with year-on-year changes of +0.58%, -15.35%, and -19.19% respectively [5] - The company expects net profits for 2025-2027 to be 3.411 billion yuan, 3.640 billion yuan, and 3.895 billion yuan, with year-on-year growth rates of 24.5%, 6.7%, and 7.0% respectively [11] Market Dynamics - The company’s main products, threonine and lysine, saw average market prices of 12.08 yuan/kg and 11.29 yuan/kg respectively by the end of 2024, reflecting increases of 6.34% and 18.72% compared to the beginning of the year [5][6] - The recent increase in tariffs on certain imported agricultural products is expected to drive domestic agricultural prices upward, potentially benefiting the demand for feed amino acids [9] - The company’s revenue from domestic operations was 16.395 billion yuan, accounting for 65.40%, while revenue from international operations was 8.424 billion yuan, accounting for 33.48% [10]