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1月新增信贷和社融均超市场预期
BOCOM International·2025-02-20 07:48

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the banking industry, with expectations of a "moderately loose" monetary policy and "more proactive" fiscal policy supporting credit demand recovery in 2025 [1][2]. Core Insights - In January 2025, new RMB loans reached 5.13 trillion yuan, exceeding market expectations of 4.5-5.0 trillion yuan, marking the highest level for the same period in history, primarily driven by strong corporate credit performance [1][2]. - New social financing (社融) in January 2025 was 7.06 trillion yuan, also above the market expectation of 6-7 trillion yuan, representing a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan, with significant contributions from RMB loans and government bonds [1][2]. - The report highlights a robust performance in corporate credit, with new medium to long-term loans amounting to 3.46 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 150 billion yuan, and short-term loans increasing by 1.74 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 280 billion yuan [1][2]. Summary by Sections New Loans and Social Financing - January 2025 saw new RMB loans of 5.13 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 210 billion yuan, and new social financing of 7.06 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 583.3 billion yuan [1][2]. - The increase in new loans was primarily due to strong corporate credit, with medium to long-term loans contributing significantly [1][2]. Corporate and Household Credit - Corporate medium to long-term loans were 3.46 trillion yuan, while short-term loans were 1.74 trillion yuan, indicating a strong demand for credit from businesses [1][2]. - Household credit showed signs of recovery, with new medium to long-term loans at 493.5 billion yuan, although this was a decrease compared to the previous year [1][2]. Monetary Aggregates - M1 growth was reported at 0.4%, maintaining positive growth, while M2 growth slightly decreased to 7.0% [5][6]. - The balance of social financing grew at a rate of 8.0%, remaining stable compared to previous months [5][6]. Deposits - New RMB deposits in January 2025 were 4.32 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 1.16 trillion yuan, with household deposits increasing by 300 billion yuan but corporate deposits decreasing significantly [1][2].