CAITONG SECURITIES·2025-02-18 05:20Core Viewpoints - The report emphasizes that the market transaction volume continues to rise, driven by AI-led transformations in the industry, particularly benefiting brokerage firms' trading businesses [4][29] - It highlights the ongoing integration process within the brokerage industry, with significant events such as the transfer of equity stakes from the Ministry of Finance to Central Huijin and the establishment of a coordination group for the Guolian Minsheng integration [4][19] Market Performance - The report notes that the CSI 300 index increased by 1.19% during the week of February 10-14, while the Zhongzheng All Bond Index decreased by 0.10% [6][7] - Year-to-date performance shows the CSI 300 index has risen by 0.10%, while the Shanghai Composite Index has decreased by 0.15% [6][7] Market Activity - A-share daily average trading volume reached 17,496 billion yuan, an increase of 8.3% compared to the previous week, and a 27.7% increase year-to-date compared to the entire year of 2024 [10][12] - The Hong Kong stock exchange saw a daily average trading volume of 2,987 billion HKD, up 65.2% from the previous week, and a 34.2% increase year-to-date compared to 2024 [14] Public Fund Data - The report indicates that new public fund issuance is primarily in bond funds, with 42.7 billion units issued this week, while equity funds saw 5.1 billion units issued, with no new actively managed equity funds [16][18] - Year-to-date, public fund issuance totals 996 billion units, a 15.6% increase year-on-year, while equity fund issuance is 406 billion units, a 125.3% increase year-on-year [16] Key Events - The transfer of equity stakes in three major AMCs to Central Huijin has resulted in Central Huijin holding seven brokerage licenses, making it the most concentrated state-owned capital operating platform in the brokerage sector [19] - The establishment of the Guolian Minsheng integration coordination group marks the official start of the integration process, with leadership roles assigned to key executives from both firms [19][21] AI Deployment in Brokerages - The report tracks the deployment of AI models like DeepSeek across various brokerages, highlighting applications in risk management, investment advisory, and market analysis [23][24] - Brokerages such as CITIC Securities and Guotai Junan have completed local deployments of DeepSeek, enhancing their capabilities in intelligent investment services and market analysis [23][24] Earnings Reports - As of February 16, 2025, 19 brokerages have released earnings forecasts, with Dongwu Securities reporting a net profit of 2.366 billion yuan for 2024, an 18% year-on-year increase [26][27] - Orient Securities expects a net profit of 3.351 billion yuan for 2024, a 22% increase year-on-year, with a significant turnaround in the fourth quarter [26][27] Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on brokerage firms like Dongfang Caifu, which have internet business advantages, and top-tier firms like CITIC Securities and招商证券 (H shares) that are expected to strive for "first-class investment bank" status [4][29]