中债策略周报-20250319

Group 1 - The report indicates that the Chinese bond market experienced upward pressure on long-term interest rates, with the 10-year government bond rising by 3 basis points and the 30-year bond by 4 basis points, while the 1-year bond increased by 16 basis points, leading to an inversion in the yield curve between 3-year and 1-year bonds [2][9][12] - The January credit data showed a significant increase in new loans, with a total of 5.2 trillion yuan, which is 379.3 billion yuan more than the previous year, indicating a recovery in medium to long-term loans for enterprises, particularly in the construction and manufacturing sectors [5][37] - The report suggests that the current tightening of liquidity in the market is leading to a bear flattening of the yield curve, but there remains value in long-term bonds after overcoming the pressure from liquidity [5][47] Group 2 - The report highlights that the central bank's monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative, with indications of increased easing measures to support economic growth, particularly in light of weak demand [5][45][47] - The issuance of bonds in the primary market was robust, with government bonds totaling 3.536 billion yuan and local government bonds at 1.615 billion yuan, reflecting a strong supply side in the bond market [17][17] - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring high-frequency data related to credit, consumption, and real estate to gauge the effectiveness of policy measures and the overall economic recovery [47][47]