策略周报：两次科技大周期的对比和启示-20250319

Group 1 - The report highlights the emergence of DeepSeek, which has led to a revaluation of Chinese technology assets, drawing parallels between the current AI technology cycle and the mobile internet cycle from 2009 to 2015 [1] - Both cycles were initiated by overseas technological innovations (iPhone and ChatGPT), followed by domestic products taking the lead, resulting in industry waves and significant breakthroughs in cultural media [2][3] - The macroeconomic backdrop for both cycles includes economic transformation and liquidity easing, which supports the valuation uplift of technology-related industries and the expansion of excess returns [2][3] Group 2 - Compared to the previous mobile internet cycle, the overall fundamentals of technology stocks in the current cycle are weaker, facing a more complex external environment, leading to greater differentiation [2][3] - Since the release of ChatGPT in 2023, the TMT sector has seen significant gains, with the overall increase still having considerable room for growth, as valuation repairs are largely complete [3][9] Group 3 - The report indicates that the current TMT sector has potential for further growth, with a projected increase of over 70% if it mirrors the performance of the 2009-2015 technology cycle [49] - The report also notes that the sub-sectors within TMT show optimistic growth potential, with expected increases ranging from 80% to 140% for various segments [50]