金属行业周报：国内下游复苏向好，美国拟实施对等关税-20250319

Investment Rating - The steel industry is rated as "Neutral" [4] - The non-ferrous metals industry is rated as "Positive" [4] Core Insights - The recovery of downstream demand in the domestic market is expected to support steel prices in the short term, while macroeconomic news and events should be monitored [2][4] - Copper prices are supported by tight copper ore supply, but uncertainties regarding tariffs and trade wars may exert pressure on prices; expectations of domestic stimulus to boost macro demand are favorable for copper prices [2][4] - Aluminum prices may continue to decline due to the absence of large-scale production cuts in alumina plants, while export demand is pressured by EU sanctions and announced tariffs from the US [3][4] - Gold prices may have room for growth driven by safe-haven demand, despite uncertainties surrounding tariff policies [3][4] Industry Data Summary Steel - The steel industry has seen an increase in both supply and demand, with overall inventory rising; cold-rolled and medium-thick plate inventories have decreased, indicating better demand for plates compared to construction materials [18] - As of February 14, the total steel inventory was 18.21 million tons, up 8.77% from the previous week but down 11.86% year-on-year [26] - The production of five major steel varieties was 8.1462 million tons, a 0.74% increase from the previous week and a 1.31% increase year-on-year [20] Copper - Domestic macro sentiment has improved, providing some support for copper prices; however, the processing fees for copper concentrate have been declining, increasing cost pressures for domestic smelting companies [34][35] - As of February 14, LME copper spot prices were $9,800 per ton, up 5.64% from the previous week [39] Aluminum - Domestic demand for aluminum is recovering, providing some support for prices; however, alumina prices are expected to continue their downward trend [41][43] - As of February 14, LME aluminum spot prices were $2,700 per ton, up 0.85% from the previous week [44] Precious Metals - Gold prices have increased due to rising safe-haven demand and a weaker dollar; as of February 14, COMEX gold closed at $2,893.70 per ounce, up 0.26% from the previous week [50] Lithium and New Energy Metals - The price of battery-grade lithium carbonate has decreased, with a price of 76,400 yuan per ton as of February 14, down 1.42% from the previous week [53] Rare Earths and Minor Metals - The price of light rare earths, such as praseodymium-neodymium oxide, was 434,000 yuan per ton as of February 14, up 2.12% from the previous week [59]