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中金:联合研究:低空经济:投资中国蓝天新机遇
CICC·2025-02-24 02:41

Investment Rating - The report highlights the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry with significant growth potential, supported by government policies and market forecasts [2][21]. Core Insights - The low-altitude economy is expected to become a new driving force for economic and social development, with a projected market size of approximately 5,060 billion yuan by the end of 2023, potentially reaching 1 trillion yuan by 2026 [2][3]. - The industry encompasses various sectors, including aircraft manufacturing, low-altitude flight, air traffic management, and comprehensive services, indicating a long industrial chain with strong radiating effects [3][4]. - The report emphasizes the importance of eVTOL (electric Vertical Take-Off and Landing) aircraft as a key component of the low-altitude economy, with commercial applications expected to improve traditional aviation financial models [4][27]. Summary by Sections Policy and Market Environment - The central government has prioritized the low-altitude economy as a strategic emerging industry, leading to a surge in supportive policies from various government levels [2][21]. - The establishment of the Low Altitude Economy Development Department by the National Development and Reform Commission marks a significant milestone in the strategic planning and coordination of the industry [17][18]. Industry Structure and Development - The low-altitude economy spans multiple industries, with a focus on aircraft manufacturing and air traffic management as foundational elements [3][4]. - The report identifies a robust industrial foundation in China, particularly in drone and new energy technologies, positioning the country for rapid growth in the low-altitude economy [11][10]. Application Scenarios - The report outlines diverse application scenarios for the low-altitude economy, including logistics, tourism, agriculture, and emergency services, with eVTOL expected to lead in commercial deployment [4][30]. - The demand for commercial drones is anticipated to rise significantly, driven by government initiatives and the expansion of low-altitude logistics routes [33][31]. Technological Advancements - The report discusses the critical role of technological innovation in the low-altitude economy, particularly in the development of eVTOL and autonomous flight systems [13][39]. - The integration of advanced automotive electronics into low-altitude flight control systems is expected to enhance the development of the industry [45][44]. Future Outlook - The low-altitude economy is projected to reshape transportation and logistics, creating new employment opportunities and driving economic diversification [16][14]. - The report anticipates a growing demand for civil helicopters, with a forecasted increase in the fleet size and significant opportunities for domestic manufacturers [35][36].