每日港 港股早晨快訊 股評析 2025 年 10 月 232012 日星期四 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 企業消息 ➢ 明略科技(2718)今日(23日)起招股，集資10億元； 長江存儲據報考慮最早明年IPO，或尋求高達3,000億元人民幣估值； 中國聯通(0762)首三季盈利升5%，擬分拆智網科技至深交所上市； 金沙中國(1928)第三季經調整物業EBITDA升3%； 上海石油化工(0338)首三季虧損4.3億元人民幣，盈轉虧； 外圍市況展望 美國聯儲局9月宣布減息0.25厘，符合市場預期。利率點陣圖顯示，官員 們普遍預計，今年餘下兩次會議亦各減息0.25厘。會後聲明指出，最新 指標顯示上半年經濟活動放緩，職位增長放慢，失業率略為上升但依然 低企，通脹呈上升跡象並仍略為高企。鮑威爾表示，9月的寬鬆行動屬於 風險管理類型的減息，暗示並非開啟持續的減息周期。點陣圖顯示，聯 儲局將在2026年再減息1次，明顯低於目前市場預期的3次減息。此外， 聯儲局會繼續執行量化緊縮(QT)，手上的美債及按揭抵押證券(MBS)分 別以每月50億美元及350億美元的步伐縮減。貿易戰拖慢原油需求增長， OPEC+增加供 ...

恒指守 25,000 點：聯儲局主席鮑威爾在全球央行年會上表示，風險平衡 轉變可能需要調整政策立場，同時美國就業數據轉弱，減息預期升溫。惟 聯儲局 9 月鷹派減息，明年減息空間少於預期。美國關稅寬限期即將在 11 月屆滿，美國總統特朗普表示，將自 11 月 1 日起對中國額外徵收 100% 關稅，並對全部關鍵軟件實施出口管制，以及預告或不會在 APEC 峰會 與國家主席習近平會面。中美關係再次緊張，打擊投資氣氛。預計中美進 入新一輪角力期，大市波動性加劇。至於國內經濟方面，內地國慶中秋假 期人均消費下跌，顯示消費力疲軟，港股企業盈利未見改善。後續觀望中 美貿易戰局勢，以及十五五規劃，恒指料守 25,000 點，相當於未來 12 個 月預測市盈率 12 倍。 短期看好板塊 宏觀焦點 每日港股評析 港股早晨快訊 2025 年 10 月 152012 日星期三 -01-17 市場回顧 中港股市短期展望 ➢ 總理李強：堅定不移辦好自己事 要加力提效實施逆周期調節； 央行貨幣政策司負責人：堅持匯率風險中性理念，夯實保持匯率穩定 的微觀基礎； 趙晞文 hayman.chiu@cinda.com.hk 李芷瑩 edith. ...

觀望本周美國經濟數據，美股周一反覆向好。道指曾下跌約 100 點，全日收升 68 點，漲幅 0.2%，報 46,316 點。標普 500 指數收高 17 點，漲幅 0.3%，報 6,661 點。納指收高 107 點，漲幅 0.5%，報 22,591 點。 美國總統特朗普宣布，將對進口軟木木材及木材徵收 10%的關稅，並對廚櫃、 洗手台及軟墊木製品徵收 25%關稅，新關稅將於 10 月 14 日起實施，部分關稅 將於明年 1 月 1 日起調高。 隨著美國聯邦政府逼近 10 月 1 日停擺，美國關鍵經濟數據可能會暫停公布，因 許多聯邦政府活動將會暫停，非必要員工將暫時休假或遭解僱。如果 9 月 30 日 後美國聯邦政府停擺，首先將會受到影響的將是原定於 10 月 3 日公布的勞工統 計局就業數據，之後會是通脹數據，而零售銷售及新住宅建設數據亦面臨延遲 公布的風險。 英偉達(NVDA.US) 行政總裁黃仁勳接受一個播客訪問時表示，中國在晶片製 造方面僅落後美國數納秒，美國應停止禁向中國出售晶片。他指允許英偉達等 公司向中國出售晶片，會擴散美國科技及擴大美國的地緣政治影響力，符合美 國利益。他又指美國正面對強大、創新 ...

Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index faces resistance around 27,200 points, with a projected P/E ratio of approximately 13 times over the next 12 months, as the US-China trade tensions ease and the US Federal Reserve signals potential policy adjustments due to weakening employment data [1] - The Hong Kong stock market remains active with a positive risk appetite, as capital rotates among different sectors [1] Short-term Sector Outlook - Focus on China's September Loan Prime Rate (LPR) and Hong Kong's August CPI [2] Macro Focus - Upcoming visits by Trump to China and Xi to the US, indicating potential improvements in US-China relations [3][9] - The People's Bank of China adjusts its 14-day reverse repurchase operations to maintain liquidity [9] - China's foreign exchange market remains stable, with a net inflow of $3.2 billion in August [9] Corporate News - JD.com partners with China Resources for strategic cooperation, with plans for the first JD Mall in Hong Kong to open next year [4] - Alibaba's Taobao and Ele.me are reportedly engaging in group buying initiatives [4] - Xiaomi recalls over 110,000 units of its SU7 standard electric vehicles [4] - Berkshire Hathaway confirms the complete sale of its BYD shares [4] International Market Outlook - The US Federal Reserve announced a 0.25% rate cut, with expectations for two more cuts this year [4] - The Fed continues its quantitative tightening, reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities [4] - The US Senate's failure to pass temporary funding bills raises the risk of a government shutdown [4][9] Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index closed at 26,545 points, with a year-to-date increase of 32.33% [6] - The Hang Seng Tech Index rose by 40.87% year-to-date, reflecting strong performance in technology stocks [6] Investment Trends - The Hong Kong Stock Connect has seen a net inflow of over 1 trillion yuan this year, indicating strong interest from mainland investors [10] - Macau's inbound tourism reached a record high in August, with a 15.5% year-on-year increase [10]

Stock Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index rose 234 points or 0.9% to close at 25,339 points, the China Enterprises Index rose 105 points or 1.2% to close at 9,079 points, and the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 149 points or 2.7% to close at 5,647 points. The total turnover of the market was HK$285.584 billion [1]. - The Shanghai Composite Index rose 54 points or 1.45% to close at 3,825 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 246 points or 2.07% to close at 12,166 points, and the ChiNext Index rose 87 points or 3.36% to close at 2,682 points. The total turnover of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock markets increased to approximately RMB2.55 trillion, setting a record for the A-share market [2]. - The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the Nasdaq Composite both rose 1.9%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average reached a new high, closing 846 points higher at 45,631 points, the Nasdaq Composite rose 396 points to 21,496 points, and the S&P 500 Index closed 96 points or 1.5% higher at 6,466 points, approaching last week's high [2]. Monetary Policy - The People's Bank of China conducted a seven-day reverse repurchase operation of RMB253 billion in the open market on the 21st, with an operating interest rate remaining flat at 1.4%. There were RMB128.7 billion of reverse repurchases due, resulting in a net injection of RMB124.3 billion [2]. - The central parity rate of the RMB against the US dollar was raised by 97 points to 7.1287 [2]. Trade Policy - Canada announced on Friday the cancellation of several countervailing tariffs against the US but maintained a 25% tariff on US automobiles, steel, and aluminum. The policy adjustment will take effect on September 1st [3]. Company Announcements IPO - Aux Group (02580.HK) plans to globally issue 207.16 million shares, with 5% (approximately 10.3582 million shares) for the Hong Kong public offering and 95% (approximately 196.8 million shares) for the international placement. The offering price ranges from HK$16 to HK$17.42 per share, with a maximum fundraising of approximately HK$3.61 billion. The subscription period is from the 25th to noon on the 28th, and it is expected to be listed on September 2nd [4]. Interim Results - Sinopharm Group (01099.HK) reported a turnover of RMB286.043 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year decrease of 2.9%. The net profit was RMB3.466 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, and the earnings per share were RMB1.11. No dividend was declared [4]. - Zhaojin Mining Industry (01818.HK) reported an income of RMB6.972 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year increase of 50.7%. The gross profit was RMB3.05 billion, an increase of 54.3%. The net profit was RMB1.44 billion, a growth of 160.4%, and the earnings per share were RMB0.38. No dividend was declared [4]. - Greentown China (03900.HK) reported an income of RMB53.368 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year decrease of 23.3%, due to a 22.7% decrease in the transfer area during the period. The gross profit was RMB7.159 billion, a decrease of 21.4%. The net profit was RMB210 million, a decline of 89.7%, mainly affected by an impairment loss of RMB1.933 billion on related assets. The earnings per share were RMB0.08. No dividend was declared [5]. - Chow Tai Fook Jewellery Group (06168.HK) reported an income of RMB3.15 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year increase of 5.2%. The gross profit was RMB827 million, an increase of 8.7%, mainly due to the contribution of the self - operated business model. The net profit was RMB415 million, a growth of 11.9%, and the earnings per share were RMB1.09. An interim dividend of HK$0.45 was declared [5]. - Nine Masts Catering Group (09922.HK) reported an income of RMB2.753 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year decrease of 10.1%. The net profit was RMB60.69 million, a decline of 16%, and the earnings per share were RMB0.04. No dividend was declared [5]. - CMOC Group (03993.HK) reported an operating income of RMB94.773 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year decrease of 7.8%. The operating cost was RMB74.727 billion, a decrease of 11%. The net profit attributable to shareholders was RMB8.671 billion, a growth of 60.1%, setting a new high for the same period. The earnings per share were RMB0.41. No dividend was declared [5]. - CRRC Corporation Limited (01766.HK) reported an operating income of RMB119.758 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year increase of 33%, mainly due to the growth of railway equipment and new industry revenues. The net profit was RMB7.246 billion, a growth of 72.5%, and the earnings per share were RMB0.25. An interim dividend of RMB0.11 was declared [6]. - Dongfang Selection (01797.HK) reported a total revenue of RMB4.392 billion for the fiscal year ended May 31st, a year-on-year decrease of 37.9%. The net profit was RMB5.74 million, a decline of 99.7%, and the earnings per share were RMB0.01. No dividend was declared. The net profit from continuing operations was RMB6.2 million, compared with RMB249 million in 2024. Excluding the financial impact of the sale of Yuhui Tongxing, the net profit from continuing operations was RMB135 million, a growth of 30%. The total operating cost of continuing operations decreased by 38.2% to RMB3 billion, mainly due to the decrease in the inventory cost and logistics cost of self - operated products caused by the decrease in GMV. The gross profit from continuing operations decreased by 17% to RMB1.4 billion, and the gross profit margin increased from 25.9% to 32% [7]. - China National Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK) reported an income of RMB10.316 billion for the six months ended June 30th, a year-on-year increase of 18.5%. The gross profit was RMB946 million, a decrease of 1.8%. The net profit was RMB706 million, a growth of 9.8%, and the earnings per share were RMB1.02. An interim dividend of HK$0.19 was declared, compared with HK$0.15 in the same period last year [7].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the company with a target price of RMB 36.50 for A-shares and HKD 32.50 for H-shares [1]. Core Views - The company's Q1 2025 performance met expectations, with revenue of RMB 24.838 billion, a year-on-year increase of 5.76%, and a net profit attributable to the parent company of RMB 1.127 billion, up 14.89% year-on-year [4][8]. - The report highlights the improvement in profitability driven by strict cost control and a favorable sales structure, achieving a net profit margin of 4.5% in Q1 2025, an increase of 0.36 percentage points year-on-year [7][8]. Financial Performance Summary - **Revenue and Profit Growth**: - Revenue for 2023 was RMB 85.6 billion, projected to grow to RMB 99.6 billion in 2025, reflecting a growth rate of 7.4% [3]. - Net profit attributable to the parent company was RMB 2.837 billion in 2023, expected to reach RMB 3.839 billion in 2025, with a growth rate of 14.7% [3]. - **Profitability Metrics**: - The gross margin for Q1 2025 was 21.4%, with a slight year-on-year increase of 0.3 percentage points [7]. - The report indicates a projected P/E ratio of 9.9x for 2025, suggesting a favorable valuation compared to industry peers [8]. - **Cash Flow and Dividends**: - Operating cash flow for Q1 2025 was RMB 65.08 million, a decrease of 58% year-on-year, attributed to currency fluctuations and revenue decline [7]. - The company plans to increase dividends, with projected dividends per share of RMB 1.41 in 2025, yielding a dividend rate of 5.2% [3]. Market Trends and Competitive Position - **Export Growth**: - The company experienced a strong growth in exports, with a 12.5% increase in appliance exports in Q1 2025, particularly in air conditioners and refrigerators [5]. - **Domestic Market Dynamics**: - The domestic market showed mixed results, with a slight decline in retail sales for air conditioners and refrigerators, while washing machines saw a 4.8% increase [6]. - The competitive landscape is intensifying, particularly in the online segment, with increased market share from competitors like Xiaomi [6]. - **Strategic Initiatives**: - The company is focusing on product differentiation and cost efficiency to maintain its competitive edge in a challenging market environment [6][7].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The announcement of "Reciprocal Tariffs" by President Trump indicates a significant shift in U.S. trade policy, aiming to address trade imbalances and unfair practices from major trading partners [1][2] - The implementation of these tariffs will be contingent upon the completion of a report by April 1, 2025, which will guide specific actions based on the findings [5][6] - The focus will be on countries with significant trade surpluses with the U.S. and those with high tariff rates compared to the U.S. [8][9] Summary by Sections Section 1: Content and Features of Reciprocal Tariffs - The "Reciprocal Tariff" policy targets a wide range of countries, including Brazil, India, and the EU, in response to perceived unfair trade practices [3] - The policy aims to equalize tariff rates, meaning the U.S. will impose the same tariff on countries that impose tariffs on U.S. goods [4] - Non-tariff policies, such as Value Added Tax (VAT) and Digital Services Tax (DST), will also be considered unfair practices [5] Section 2: Affected Countries and Regions - Emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Vietnam have significantly higher average tariff rates compared to the U.S., making them primary targets for the new tariffs [8] - Countries with high VAT rates, such as those in Europe, are also likely to be affected [9] Section 3: Impact on U.S. Inflation and Growth - The effective tariff rate for the U.S. is projected to rise from 2.41% to 5.46% with the implementation of reciprocal tariffs, and potentially to 13.07% if VAT is included [14][16] - The estimated impact on U.S. inflation could be an increase of 0.1 percentage points without VAT, and up to 2 percentage points if all costs are passed to consumers [18] - The projected increase in federal revenue from these tariffs could be significant, with estimates suggesting a potential increase of $375 billion from reciprocal tariffs alone [19]

Investment Rating - The report suggests a cautious investment outlook for the electricity sector, indicating a weak beta market environment with both pressures and opportunities [1][5]. Core Insights - The electricity sector is expected to face a loose supply-demand balance in 2025, with a potential decline in electricity prices, making it difficult to replicate the performance seen in 2024 [1][5]. - The report emphasizes the importance of identifying stocks with strong risk resilience and capital operation opportunities [1][5]. - The report highlights the ongoing support for new energy policies, indicating that the sector is entering a phase of improvement after a bottoming out [2][3]. Summary by Sections Section 1: New Energy Policy Support - The report notes that since the "14th Five-Year Plan," electricity investment has remained high, with expectations for supportive policies to guide the construction of a new power system under carbon neutrality goals [2]. - It suggests focusing on regional leaders with good consumption conditions and undervalued electric companies with limited price decline space [2][3]. Section 2: Defensive Dividend Stocks - In a phase of market fluctuations, stable dividend stocks such as Hong Kong utilities and nuclear power still hold allocation value [3]. - The report mentions that nuclear power is expected to maintain a steady growth rate with a CAGR of over 10% and a dividend yield of around 4.5% [3]. Section 3: Market Value Management - The report discusses the strategic importance of market value management for power companies, highlighting measures such as dividends, mergers, and share buybacks to enhance investment attractiveness [3][5]. - It points out that power companies with abundant free cash flow and limited capital expenditure on new energy construction are well-positioned for market value management [3]. Section 4: Supply-Demand Dynamics - The report indicates that electricity supply and demand are expected to balance out, leading to a weak cycle for electricity prices in 2025 [5][11]. - It forecasts that electricity demand growth may slow to 5.5-6% in 2025, influenced by stricter energy consumption controls and a shift in industrial electricity consumption patterns [11][12]. Section 5: Price Trends and Risks - The report anticipates a decline in annual electricity trading prices across provinces in 2025, with varying degrees of decrease [17][18]. - It highlights that the trading prices for coal are expected to decline, impacting the profitability of thermal power plants [17][18]. Section 6: Investment Opportunities - The report identifies opportunities in the offshore wind sector, which is expected to have better consumption and price risk profiles compared to onshore projects [37]. - It emphasizes the potential for high-quality, low-volatility dividend assets to remain attractive in a fluctuating market environment [39]. Section 7: Regulatory Environment - The report notes that recent regulatory changes have established a clearer path for market value management in state-owned enterprises, which is expected to enhance the investment appeal of power companies [40][41].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on the AI application sector, particularly emphasizing the potential of DeepSeek in driving demand and supply dynamics in the industry [1][2]. Core Insights - The DeepSeek model has significantly increased awareness and acceptance of AI applications across various sectors, leading to a surge in demand from both individual and enterprise users [1][4][5]. - The supply side is expected to benefit from the enhanced reasoning capabilities of the DeepSeek-R1 model, which is anticipated to unlock new functionalities and applications in complex scenarios [2][11][12]. - The report highlights a trend of large enterprises opting for private deployment of DeepSeek due to stability concerns and data privacy, while smaller enterprises utilize public cloud APIs [7][9]. Demand Side Summary - There is a notable increase in the adoption of DeepSeek across all levels of enterprises, from state-owned enterprises to small private companies, indicating a broad acceptance of AI models [4][5]. - The report indicates that the demand for AI applications, particularly AI Agent applications, is rapidly growing, with many enterprises actively seeking to explore and implement these technologies [2][9]. - The integration of DeepSeek into various applications is expected to enhance the functionality and reliability of AI solutions, particularly in sectors requiring strong logical reasoning, such as law and healthcare [12][13]. Supply Side Summary - DeepSeek-R1 is positioned as a high-performance open-source model that enhances the capabilities of AI applications, allowing for deeper functionalities and more complex use cases [11][12]. - The report anticipates that AI application vendors will progressively release more advanced features based on the R1 model, which will stimulate demand and increase customer willingness to pay [12][13]. - The ability of DeepSeek to support model fine-tuning and distillation will enable application developers to create tailored solutions that meet specific industry needs [11][12]. Market Trends - The current market phase is likened to the early stages of AI application trends observed in 2023, with a focus on the initial batch of companies integrating the DeepSeek model [14][15]. - The report suggests that the upcoming phase will see a shift towards product launches and commercial viability, with a strong emphasis on differentiation and leveraging the unique advantages of the R1 model [15][17]. - The report concludes that the domestic AI application landscape is expected to evolve significantly in 2025, driven by improved model capabilities and a more proactive approach from local companies [17][18].

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The integration of banks into the venture capital market is a practical choice that aligns with innovative financial logic, allowing banks to engage in bank-affiliated venture capital (BVC), acquisition loans, and private credit, which enhances the efficiency of credit support during capacity expansion phases [1][3][4] - BVC typically operates through bank-controlled affiliated institutions, differing significantly in behavior and preferences from independent venture capital (IVC), corporate venture capital (CVC), and government-backed venture capital (GVC) [1][4][19] - The balance between innovation benefits and systemic financial risks is crucial, suggesting that banks should control the scale of their involvement in venture capital to avoid excessive expansion that could lead to financial instability [2][4][5] Summary by Sections Section 1: BVC and Acquisition Loans - BVC and acquisition loans can enhance the efficiency of venture capital exits and improve the overall innovation financing mechanism within capital markets [1][4][39] - The report emphasizes that banks' participation in the venture capital market can facilitate smoother transitions from capital market-led financing to bank financing, particularly during the initial success of industrial innovation [1][4][39] Section 2: Characteristics of BVC - BVC is characterized by a preference for later-stage investments, shorter holding periods, and lower equity stakes compared to IVC, reflecting banks' risk-averse nature [4][25][37] - The investment behavior of BVC is influenced by the need to establish beneficial relationships with portfolio companies to support core banking activities, such as lending [4][33][37] Section 3: Role of Acquisition Loans - Acquisition loans, particularly leveraged buyouts (LBOs), play a significant role in enhancing the production efficiency of acquired companies and improving innovation outputs, such as patent citations [39][43][44] - The report highlights that banks can benefit from participating in LBO transactions by establishing business relationships with private equity firms, which can lead to future lending opportunities [39][46]