Core Insights - The report indicates that the Hang Seng Index has recently rebounded to around 25,855 points, influenced by easing US-China trade relations and ongoing tariff news, with short-term market conditions expected to be affected by these factors [9][10]. - The People's Bank of China maintained the 5-year LPR at 3.50% and the 1-year LPR at 3.00%, while the US Federal Reserve lowered interest rates by 0.25% to a range of 3.50-3.75% [9]. - The report highlights the performance of major indices, with the Hang Seng Index up 28.9% year-to-date, and the H-share Index up 23.3% [3]. Market Overview - The Hang Seng Index closed at 25,855 points, up 219 points or 0.86%, with a total market turnover of HKD 1,998 million [10]. - The H-share Index rose to 8,991 points, gaining 99 points or 1.12%, while the Hang Seng Technology Index increased by 95 points or 1.74% [10]. - The report provides a summary of the best and worst performing stocks within the Hang Seng Index, with Baidu Group (9888) leading with an increase of 8.9% and a year-to-date gain of 56.8% [3]. Company Analysis: Midea Group (0300.HK) - Midea Group reported a revenue of RMB 111.9 billion for Q3 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 10.06%, and a net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 11.87 billion, up 8.95% year-on-year [24]. - For the first three quarters of 2025, the company achieved a revenue of RMB 363.1 billion, a year-on-year increase of 13.82%, with a net profit of RMB 37.88 billion, up 19.51% [24]. - The total assets of Midea Group were RMB 593.3 billion, down 1.8% year-on-year, while total liabilities decreased by 4.6% to RMB 359.2 billion [25]. New IPO Dynamics - The report outlines upcoming IPOs, including Zhiyu (2513) in the artificial intelligence sector, with a proposed price of HKD 116.20 and a maximum fundraising amount of approximately HKD 4.348 billion [30]. - Tian Shu Intelligent Chip (9903) is also set to launch with a proposed price of HKD 144.60, aiming to raise around HKD 3.677 billion [30]. - The report notes that these IPOs are expected to generate significant market interest due to their medium to large scale [30][31].

Market Overview - The A-share market maintained an upward trend, with the broad indices showing slight increases, specifically the CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index recorded weekly changes of -0.08%, 1.01%, and 2.74% respectively [2] - The communication and defense industries performed strongly, ranking first and second in sector performance, while coal and oil & petrochemical sectors lagged behind [2] - Growth stocks outperformed value stocks, with the National Securities Growth Index rising by 1.01% while the National Securities Value Index fell by 1.37% [2] Future Outlook - The macroeconomic expectations indicate a neutral impact on the stock market, suggesting that the current economic conditions do not significantly influence market movements [3] - Valuation levels, market sentiment, and capital flows are currently optimistic, indicating a normal microstructure in the stock market [3] - The QRS indicator shows a bullish signal for most tracked indices, suggesting a certain level of support at the market bottom [3] Quantitative Model Performance - The industry rotation model outperformed the equal-weighted benchmark by 0.2 percentage points, with a cumulative return of 22.9% since August 1, 2023, compared to the benchmark's 16.5% [4] - The multi-factor stock selection model for the CSI 300 index enhanced returns by 0.61 percentage points this week, with a cumulative return of 143.10% since January 1, 2019, outperforming the benchmark by 88.83 percentage points [5] - The growth trend selection strategy yielded a return of -0.7% this week, with an annualized return of 29.8% since January 1, 2009, outperforming the benchmark by 19.6% [6] Sector Rotation Insights - The adaptive model for sector rotation indicates current holdings in non-ferrous metals, banking, consumer services, power equipment & new energy, and computers, with a recent weekly return of -0.9% [4] - The value stock selection strategy reported a return of -1.5% this week, with an annualized return of 17.9% since May 5, 2009, outperforming the benchmark by 12.6% [8] Timing Indicators - The left-side timing indicators suggest a neutral valuation level for the CSI 300, with a current value of 0.85, indicating a balanced market perspective [10] - The market sentiment indicators, such as the put-call ratio and the China VIX, show bullish signals, suggesting a favorable environment for equity investments [10] QRS Timing Indicators - The QRS timing indicators for major indices like the Shanghai Composite and CSI 300 show positive signals, indicating potential upward movements in these indices [11]

Core Insights - The report highlights the shifting dynamics among the US, A-share, and Hong Kong markets, indicating a "seesaw" effect where one market's performance impacts the others. The first quarter saw a revaluation of Chinese assets led by DeepSeek, while the second quarter was characterized by strong performance in US stocks driven by AI leaders and capital expenditure growth [1][2] - Since late November, Hong Kong stocks have underperformed compared to US and A-shares, with the Hang Seng Index and Hang Seng Tech Index showing declines of 2.2% and 0.7% respectively, while the Shanghai Composite and US indices posted gains [2][3] - The report attributes the recent weakness of Hong Kong stocks to their sensitivity to liquidity changes and structural differences, with a notable slowdown in southbound capital inflows and external liquidity support [3][4] Market Dynamics - Southbound capital inflows have decreased significantly, with a 10-day moving average dropping from an average of 7 billion HKD to below 1 billion HKD, leading to concerns about potential fund outflows due to regulatory changes [3][4] - External liquidity has also been a concern, with active foreign capital flowing out of Hong Kong while inflows into A-shares have continued. The report notes that recent hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve have contributed to a lack of external liquidity support for Hong Kong stocks [3][4] - Despite the short-term liquidity disturbances, the report suggests that the fundamental weakness in the market has amplified negative sentiment, particularly in the context of the unique industry structure of Hong Kong stocks [4][5] Sector Analysis - The technology sector, primarily focused on internet applications in Hong Kong, faces concerns over an AI bubble, while A-shares benefit from a higher proportion of hardware-related stocks, providing stronger support [5][6] - The consumer sector in Hong Kong, particularly discretionary spending, is struggling due to weak domestic consumption recovery and a declining credit cycle, which limits its potential as a market driver [5][6] - The cyclical sector has shown some strength, particularly in metals, but its overall weight in the Hong Kong market is low, limiting its ability to provide substantial support [5][6] Future Outlook - The report anticipates that Hong Kong stocks will be more sensitive to liquidity and fundamental changes, with potential for stronger performance if the credit cycle improves and risk appetite increases [5][6] - Historical patterns indicate that Hong Kong stocks tend to outperform during periods of fundamental recovery and ample liquidity, but recent trends suggest a need to consider structural differences among the markets [6][7] - For 2026, the report emphasizes the importance of liquidity, fundamental conditions, and structural opportunities in determining market performance, with a focus on the potential for recovery in the US credit cycle and the challenges facing the Chinese credit cycle [9][10]

Investment Rating - The report rates the industry as "Outperform" based on the expected performance of key companies exceeding the industry index over the next 6 to 12 months [20][23]. Core Insights - The establishment of the "polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform" marks a significant step in the photovoltaic supply-side reform, indicating a move towards reducing internal competition within the industry [4][5]. - The polysilicon sector is expected to undergo a deep adjustment and clearing process over the next six months to a year, with current production levels remaining stable but facing weak downstream demand [5]. - Leading polysilicon companies are anticipated to strengthen their advantages in the long term due to their financial resources, cost management, and product quality [5][6]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The report highlights the recent establishment of a polysilicon capacity integration acquisition platform, which aims to improve the competitive landscape of the photovoltaic industry through market-oriented and legal mechanisms [4][5]. - The current polysilicon production is around 120,000 tons, with limited marginal reductions, and prices have remained stable due to cost support [5]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on leading companies in the polysilicon sector, specifically Tongwei Co., Ltd. and Daqo New Energy, while also monitoring trends in granular silicon technology [6]. - The target prices for the recommended companies are set at CNY 28.20 for Tongwei and CNY 35.50 for Daqo, with expected P/E ratios of 38.8 and 39.6 for 2026, respectively [3][6].

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock grew by 8.5% year-on-year, remaining stable compared to October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The most significant change was observed in M1, with a year-on-year growth rate decline attributed to both a high base effect and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - November's M1 month-on-month growth rate was 0.8%, the second-lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Economic Implications - The weak financing demand from households contrasts with the expansion in corporate financing, suggesting a divergence in economic recovery[2] - The ongoing decline in M1 and M2 growth rates may signal continued tightening in monetary conditions, impacting overall economic activity[3]

Exchange Rate Framework - Traditional neoclassical models emphasize real factors while underestimating financial influences on exchange rates[3] - The neoclassical framework often leads to significant misjudgments regarding exchange rate assessments[4] - Post-Keynesian views argue that capital flows and expectations are core mechanisms driving exchange rate fluctuations[10] Capital Flows and Exchange Rates - In 2022, the daily trading volume in the foreign exchange market reached $7.5 trillion, significantly exceeding the $32 trillion annual trade volume[15] - The neoclassical perspective struggles to explain persistent trade deficits without corresponding currency depreciation[14] - The post-Keynesian approach better aligns with historical exchange rate volatility and the impact of capital flows[18] Renminbi Exchange Rate Analysis - From January 2022 to October 2025, the real effective exchange rate of the renminbi depreciated by 16%[19] - The phenomenon of "internal depreciation and external appreciation" of the renminbi challenges traditional neoclassical explanations[19] - Financial cycle adjustments have led to reduced demand and downward pressure on prices, affecting the renminbi's exchange rate[20]

Core Insights - The report indicates that A-shares are expected to outperform Hong Kong stocks in the second half of 2025, driven by factors such as increased domestic capital inflow, restructuring of international monetary order, and favorable policies for certain sectors [1][2]. Market Performance - From August 18 to December 12, 2025, the Shanghai Composite Index rose by 5.2%, and the CSI 300 increased by 9.0%. In contrast, the Hang Seng Index only gained 2.8% during the same period [1]. - The growth of the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 was significant, with increases of 26.0% and 22.5% respectively, highlighting the strong performance of growth-oriented stocks in A-shares [1]. Reasons for A-share Outperformance - **Fundamentals**: A-shares have advantages in high-growth sectors such as hard technology and new energy, which are expected to see improved performance in the second half of the year. The report notes that A-shares are more focused on hardware sectors like semiconductors and electronics, while Hong Kong stocks are more represented by large internet companies [2]. - **Liquidity**: The report highlights that the active participation of individual investors and the inflow of medium to long-term funds have provided A-shares with additional liquidity. The margin trading balance increased from 2.1 trillion yuan in mid-August to 2.5 trillion yuan by mid-December [2][4]. - **Overseas Factors**: A-shares are less affected by overseas liquidity and trade policy risks compared to Hong Kong stocks, which have a higher proportion of foreign investment. The report notes that recent fluctuations in U.S. monetary policy and trade relations have had a more pronounced impact on Hong Kong stocks [2][3]. Future Outlook - The report anticipates that A-shares will continue to maintain their relative advantages in the medium term, particularly as AI technology begins to see more widespread industrial application. Key areas of focus include computing power, cloud computing, and domestic production [4]. - The liquidity in the A-share market is expected to remain active, with the potential for further inflows from bank wealth management products and institutional investors [4]. - The restructuring of the international monetary order and the revaluation of Chinese assets are expected to further support the performance of A-shares compared to Hong Kong stocks [4].

Financial Overview - In November, the total social financing (社融) stock growth rate remained at 8.5%, unchanged from October, but is expected to decline slightly by year-end[2] - The M2 growth rate in November was 8.0%, down 0.2 percentage points from October, while M1 growth rate fell to 4.9%, a decrease of 1.3 percentage points[2] - The net financing for the government sector in November was 1.20 trillion yuan, while the net financing for the household sector was -205.8 billion yuan, indicating a decrease for both sectors[2] Corporate Financing - Corporate sector net financing in November was 1.27 trillion yuan, an increase of 584.9 billion yuan year-on-year, primarily driven by short-term loans and bill financing[2] - Corporate bond financing reached 416.9 billion yuan in November, up 178.8 billion yuan from the previous year, reflecting a recovery in bond market sentiment[3] M1 Trends - The M1 growth rate has shown significant weakness, with a November year-on-year decline attributed to both high base effects and weaker month-on-month trends[3] - The month-on-month M1 growth rate for November was 0.8%, the second lowest level for the same month since 2020, with seasonal adjustments potentially indicating a negative growth[3] Real Estate Market Insights - The real estate market showed slight recovery with the real estate sentiment index rising to 95.1 from 94.9, although new home sales compared to 2019 saw a widening decline of 57.3%[4] - The net financing for real estate companies turned positive at 3.2 billion yuan, indicating a marginal improvement in credit conditions for the sector[5]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a positive outlook on leading agricultural companies, suggesting investment opportunities in the sector [5]. Core Insights - The agricultural sector has shown resilience, with the industry index outperforming the broader market by 0.4 percentage points during the week of December 8-12, 2025 [13]. - The report highlights significant growth in the pet food segment, with online sales increasing by 27.9% year-on-year during October and November 2025, driven by new consumer brands [34][36]. - The livestock industry is facing challenges, with a 5.5% decrease in the number of pigs marketed in November compared to the previous month, raising concerns about animal disease outbreaks [30]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The agricultural sector index increased by 0.3%, outperforming the market [13]. - Key stocks such as Zhengbang Technology, Biological Shares, and Luoniushan saw significant gains of 19%, 17%, and 14% respectively [18]. Livestock Industry - In November, the number of pigs marketed decreased by 5.5% month-on-month, with a year-on-year increase of 16.7% [30]. - Prices for live pigs increased by 2.1% week-on-week, while the average weight of marketed pigs decreased by 0.2% [30]. - The utilization rate of fattening barns in 17 provinces dropped by 6.5 percentage points [30]. Poultry Industry - Prices for chicken chicks and broilers increased by 1.4% and 0.8% respectively, amid ongoing global avian influenza outbreaks [37][38]. - The price of chicken products rose by 0.6%, driven by supply constraints and increased export orders [37]. Pet Food Industry - Online sales of pet food reached 8.45 billion yuan, with significant growth from brands like Maifudi and Fresh Lang, which saw increases of 36% and 112.6% respectively [34]. - Chewy reported a 30.9% increase in EBITDA, with active customer numbers growing by 4.9% [35]. Feed Industry - Feed raw material prices showed mixed trends, with soybean meal prices increasing by 1.5% while corn prices slightly decreased [41]. - The price of South American white shrimp increased by 4.3% week-on-week [41]. Animal Health - The veterinary drug price index decreased by 0.2%, with a year-on-year increase of 2.4% [43]. - Merck's imported pet antibiotics were launched on JD Health, marking a significant development in the pet healthcare sector [43].

Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Outperform" rating for the media and internet industry, with specific stock recommendations across various segments [5][8]. Core Insights - The media sector experienced a slight rebound in November, with the advertising segment gaining traction due to AI applications, while other segments showed minor fluctuations. The demand for entertainment is expected to rise towards the end of the year, suggesting potential opportunities in niche segments [3][4]. - Key trends for 2026 include a supportive policy environment fostering resilient growth, with a focus on AI applications, overseas expansion of Chinese content, and the revaluation of IP value driven by upgraded demand [3][4]. - The report highlights strong Q3 performance in Hong Kong and US stocks, particularly in gaming and social media sectors, with notable revenue growth from Tencent and Kuaishou [3][4][18]. Summary by Sections Industry Dynamics - The media index rose by 1.69% in November, contrasting with a decline in the Shanghai Composite Index by 1.67%. Sub-sectors showed varied performance, with digital media up by 1.76% and advertising marketing up by 9.68% [2][11]. - The gaming sector saw a record high in the issuance of domestic game licenses in November, with 178 games approved, indicating a robust supply side [20]. Company Performance - Tencent Music reported a revenue of 8,463 million, exceeding expectations, while iQIYI's performance was in line with forecasts at 6,682 million [18]. - Kuaishou's revenue reached 35,554 million, meeting expectations, driven by advancements in AI technology [18]. Valuation and Recommendations - The report maintains target prices and ratings for covered companies, recommending stocks such as Century Huatong, Mango Excellent Media, and Kuaishou for A-shares, and Tencent Music and iQIYI for Hong Kong and US stocks [5][8]. - Specific stock recommendations include Century Huatong (target price 26.50), Kuaishou (target price 89.00), and iQIYI (target price 2.50), all rated as "Outperform" [5][8].