资产配置日报：分歧加大-20250319

Core Insights - The report highlights a significant divergence in asset allocation strategies, indicating a shift in market sentiment and investment focus [1] Market Performance Review - On February 17, the stock market experienced a notable pullback, with major indices such as the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index declining by 2.52% and 1.98% respectively, while large-cap indices like the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 saw smaller declines of 0.93% and 0.88% [2] - In the bond market, the 10-year government bond yield remained stable compared to the previous trading day, while the 30-year yield decreased by 0.8 basis points [2] - Commodity markets showed mixed results, with gold prices rising by 0.50% while silver and copper prices fell by 0.48% and 0.83% respectively [2] Liquidity and Interest Rates - The report notes a significant liquidity contraction, with a net withdrawal of 43.8 billion yuan as the central bank's reverse repos fell short of maturing MLF and OMO [3] - The overnight borrowing costs for non-bank institutions increased from 2.50% to 2.55% before easing back to 1.60% by the end of the trading day [3] - The long-end interest rates showed volatility, with the 30-year government bond yield initially rising by 3.4 basis points before declining by 0.8 basis points by the end of the day [4] Market Sentiment and Sector Rotation - The report indicates a shift in market sentiment from a "deceleration zone" to a "chaotic period," with increased volatility and uncertainty in short-term market movements [4][5] - The "high-low cut" strategy is gaining traction, with a rotation from high-tech sectors to dividend-paying stocks as investors seek lower-risk opportunities [6] - The report suggests that the AI competition remains intense, with new models outperforming existing ones, indicating that the "tech boom" may not be over yet [6] Future Outlook - The report advises a cautious approach in the current "chaotic period," suggesting that investors should focus on sectors that have underperformed during the recent rally, such as dividend stocks and low-priced consumer goods [7] - In the Hong Kong market, the Hang Seng Index continues to strengthen, supported by significant net inflows from southbound capital, reflecting positive sentiment towards large internet companies [7]