THK：2024年四季报点评：业绩不及预期，订单环比有所下滑

Investment Rating - The report downgrades the investment rating of THK to "Neutral" [7] Core Views - The company's performance in Q4 2024 was below expectations, with a decline in orders on a sequential basis [7] - Revenue for 2024 is projected at 352.8 billion JPY, reflecting a year-on-year growth of 0.2% [7] - The company anticipates a brighter performance in Japan and China for 2025, with expected revenue growth of 3.0% [7] Financial Forecasts - For 2024, total revenue is expected to be 352.8 billion JPY, with a net profit of 10.4 billion JPY, indicating a significant year-on-year decline of 43.3% [7][8] - The earnings per share for 2024 is projected at 85.2 JPY, with a price-to-book ratio of 1.26 [7] - The company forecasts revenues of 376.9 billion JPY for 2025, with a net profit of 14.5 billion JPY, representing a recovery of 38.6% year-on-year [7][8] Order Trends - In Q4 2024, the company's orders for machine tools, general machinery, and semiconductor equipment decreased by 4.8%, 6.3%, and 1.4% respectively [7] - Regionally, orders in Japan, Europe, and the Americas saw declines, while Taiwan experienced a growth of 21.3% [7] Revenue and Profitability - The company achieved a revenue of 352.8 billion JPY in 2024, with an operating profit of 17.3 billion JPY, down 26.8% year-on-year [7][8] - The operating profit margin for 2024 is estimated at 4.9% [7] Future Outlook - The company projects a revenue of 363.5 billion JPY for 2025, with an operating profit of 23.5 billion JPY, indicating a growth of 35.5% [7] - The expected revenue breakdown for 2025 includes 1,158 billion JPY from Japan, 850 billion JPY from the Americas, 670 billion JPY from Europe, and 701 billion JPY from China [7]